#RoboForm #ROBO # $ROBO The importance of basic probability:
The famous trading principle of 1:2:7,
The United States has conducted objective and detailed statistics on the futures trading results of different style clients over the years, resulting in: 100 people, 70 consistently lose money,
20 people break even, 10 people profit. Among the 10 profitable, 7 do trend trading, 2 do swing trading, and 1 does day trading. Additionally,
A display of results: 100 people do trend trading, 70 survive; 100 people do swing trading, 20 survive; 100 people do day trading,
10 people survive.
It can be seen that the success rate of day trading is extremely low, but why do the vast majority of people excel in day trading?
Because shorting has a sense of quick satisfaction, like playing a game, with a single blow gear dropping, achievements can be fed back promptly. Similar to that,
For fitness, it requires long-term effort to see feedback; many people cannot stick to it.
Unlike the dopamine feedback brought by short-term trading, medium to long-term trend trading is very counterintuitive; when there is profit, you have to control yourself.
You should not sell yourself; during profit drawdown, control yourself not to cash out...
For us, the relatively easier and almost the only path is to do medium to long-term trend trading; if someone wants to make money through short-term trading,
Rapidly expanding the principal with compound interest, having such an idea is undoubtedly a pipe dream; many say it's precisely because the principal is small that you should do
Short-term, only then can you compound your principal; it's really not that way.
True compound interest is when you earn three to five times in this wave of the market, hold the profits, and earn another three to five times in the next wave, thus you have twenty to thirty.
multiplied, or multiplied again, three times doubling means nearly ten times, rather than today +10%, 20%, tomorrow
plus 10%...
The vast majority of signal groups are trading back and forth every day; this operating technique only contributes massive fees to the signal teachers.
Otherwise, you fundamentally cannot earn money, unless you are some exceptionally gifted genius; we basically cannot earn money relying on this kind of operating method.
you won't make money.
Of course, short-term trading can also make a lot of money; buying lottery tickets can also make a lot of money, but you wouldn't go buy lottery tickets; there is a
It's a basic probability issue; many things in life are determined by basic probabilities rather than effort levels; only when basic probabilities are large
Only by striving in the direction of your own success can your probability of success be high.
For example, after graduation, if you want to earn 20,000 a month, what major should you study? It must be either the internet or finance because this
The probability of earning a high salary in two industries is relatively high; if you study these two majors, your probability of earning 20,000 per month will be higher. If you study brick moving,
you'll never be able to earn 20,000 a month in your lifetime.
In college, if your school's male to female ratio is 10:1, you might be excellent but still can't find a girlfriend. However, if the male to female ratio
For example, 1:10, I think as long as you don’t have any major illnesses, you can basically find it.
Many times, it's not that we don't work hard enough, but that the soil we are in is too barren.
Direction is far more important than effort; success is about doing high probability things, and the crypto circle is no different.
2. How should books be read?
Reading is the most effective way for ordinary people to access the thoughts of upper-class individuals; apart from books, we cannot access those who write books.
People, and it's even less likely to communicate with them. For example, we can never have lunch with Buffett and eat a meal with him, but we
You can read the books he wrote at an extremely low cost.
Investment/trading books are things summarized by industry elites and predecessors; they need to be read repeatedly, and there are many
more thoughts, cognition, and logic; if you don't have certain trading experience, you won't be able to understand.
For example, when you read the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, you seem to understand what he means, but you cannot comprehend it. If at that time
After you have certain trading experience, looking back will enlighten you, and you will feel that what is said truly makes sense.
I've read a lot of books, but many are garbage; either they just copy back and forth, the books recommended in the group are all carefully selected by me.
What comes is basically about the core of trading, the logic content. (See homepage)
These books are already rare. As mentioned in the preface, doing anything requires learning and effort; if you can't
If you can't finish reading, I advise you to give up. Trading really isn't suitable for you; it's not that you're too stupid, but that you're too lazy.
3. Is technical analysis useful?
A complete trading system includes opening and closing rules + capital management; the core of trading lies in capital management, not in opening
Close positions. Don't spend too much time learning techniques; the truly core things in trading are outside the K-line, such as your mindset,
emotions, execution ability, etc.
The ancestor of trading speculation, what techniques did Jesse Livermore have? In his era, there were no K-lines; back then, it was displayed
The tools have not been invented yet; stock prices are transmitted via telegraph and then copied on the blackboard.
Jesse Livermore only knows one thing: breakout, chase! (Similar to Fatty, do breakouts)
Entering the trading field requires someone to guide you. If no one points it out for you, many people will never get out of it in their lifetime.
Many people have been in the trading market for many years, going around learning techniques, finishing learning the Zhanlun yet still losing, continuing to learn waves; waves
After finishing learning, still losing, looking for various indicators to learn; by the end, your hair turns white but you still can't harden up, and the result is still a loss.
For example, a simple opening and closing rule: open long with a strong volume bullish candle, open short with a strong volume bearish candle; if wrong, stop loss, not
If wrong, move the stop profit. Just doing this one rule you can understand is enough to earn money. We just need to find one technique to
learning, and relying on your own experience accumulation, refine some high win-rate opening and closing rules for your own use, just don't
to learn so many messy things.
Many people are talking about various indicators. Can indicators really predict future trends? What indicators should we learn?
Indicators do not predict future trends; indicators are derived from a series of calculations based on prices; first there are prices, then indicators.
Indicators.
Why can they predict future trends? Indicators are merely a quantification and visualization of price trends; they cannot predict future movements.
The proper use of indicators should be to find rules. You just need to select an indicator and then find the relationship between this indicator and price.
the rules. Those colorful indicators on the screen are either meant to deceive or are half-baked.
(Note: Indeed, Teacher Hedeng's trading panel is also very neat, only one MACD.)
For example:
Taking the moving average as an example, it doesn't mean that when the K-line breaks through MA20 upwards, it will definitely rise; indicators are not used this way.
For example, during fluctuations, you will find that moving averages do not work well, as the K-line keeps going up and down around the moving average.
The correct usage is to take this indicator as the opening and closing rules; if correct, hold it; if wrong, stop loss; force yourself to execute.
Trading rules, as long as good capital management is done, when encountering trending markets, you can reap big profits.
4. Can paying attention to the big V's market analysis make money?
Unfortunately, they cannot; market analysis cannot serve as a reason for opening or closing positions.
Moreover, the vast majority of market analysis talks about resistance and support; actually, with a little learning, you can find it yourself. Short at high points,
Buying low is just a cliché; a complete opening logic should include points, direction, position, stop-loss points, and stop
profit.
that is to say, only after clarifying the points, positions, and stop-loss points, the analysis has value to follow; otherwise, it's best not to.
that are not worth reading; they have no meaning.
There are only two types of people in the market who can make money:
1. Real trading experts;
2.100% of those who replicate expert trades are 100%.
Except for these two types of people, the rest can't earn; the most feared is analyzing halfway and referencing others halfway.
Trading is a lonely thing; you need to have your own ideas and views, while humans are inherently social animals.
You need to gain the recognition of others. A sense of loneliness can make us lack a sense of security, and then we want to see if others' opinions are the same as ours.
Once similar, we will feel much more comfortable; once different, we are filled with anxiety. So it's best to analyze the market,
Not looking at all. (Teacher Cao? Various signal teachers in the super topic? Got it?)
including mine, I suggest you pay more attention to the trading philosophy and mindset I talk about, rather than focusing on me.
Looking bullish or bearish/opening long or short really doesn't help.
Technical analysis is not indispensable; just understanding support and resistance is enough; the rest is
Relying on long-term experience accumulation of market feel, the oil seller is only skilled, watching more A films is not as good as doing it yourself.
I often hear people say: In a rising market, I got off at 20,000, and it ended up rising to 50,000;
In a downtrend, I got off at 40,000, but it ended up dropping to 30,000.
In fact, it's not only the retail investors; many big Vs often encounter this situation.
Later, I will teach how to capture most of the market, the method is very simple, even fools can do it, really, even fools can do it. Why
So why can many of us not do it? Because knowing is easy, doing is hard; you may have understood, but you can't do it right away.
The reason we can't do it is precisely because we are not fools, so we might as well act like a fool; fools are all making money.
The difficulty in trading lies in how to know, execute, achieve, and how to restrain your own greed and control your hands in trading.
Real skills are found outside the K-line.
Later, I will talk about a trend trading system that is very simple; everyone can understand it, and it can be easily copied. Complex things
Whether Western can make money, I don't know, but simple things definitely can make money; believe in yourself, trading is not as complicated as you think.
is complicated.
Why is Xiao Li Fei Dao so awesome? It's because he's fast! No matter how great you are, I'm faster than you; what good is that?
Why can only competitors of the same weight compete in Sanda matches? Because in front of absolute power, any skill is
Nonsense. You struggled for a long time, and the other party just punched you down.
Fanciful things are mostly pretty but not useful.