Recently, I had in-depth discussions with several heads of top market makers and VCs,
which led to some harsh yet realistic consensus I want to share with everyone.
After all, the current market is tough, and instead of making blind guesses, it’s better to face reality.
First, we must accept: the season of altcoins is truly over, so let go of any fantasies. In fact, I mentioned a year ago that VC investments in the Web3 primary market had already contracted, and the situation is now more evident. The black swan events of October and November had a nearly devastating impact on altcoins; retail investors now encountering altcoins find that the returns and risks are completely disproportionate, and it's highly likely that it will be a thankless task.
The only possible exception is infrastructure projects supported by real resources, such as stablecoins, RWA, and payment sectors, but most of these projects will not issue tokens, and there is no opportunity to participate.
Now, regarding DAT, the bubble is currently deflating. Long-tail DAT has no real buyers to take over, and many recent transactions are in a non-cash model of 'exchanging tokens for shares.' From the perspective of the project parties, token holders, and financial advisors, doing DAT can raise funds and make money, so they are naturally willing to do it; however, for investors, whether you are a private placement participant before the DAT listing or someone taking over after the listing, nine times out of ten you are likely to be the one getting harvested. $ETH
What should we do now? We must first recognize the stage and avoid rushing in. This is not the good old days of 'buying with your eyes closed and making a profit' from one or two years ago, but it hasn't reached the peak of 'selling with your eyes closed' in a bull market — the real peak should be a state of mindless market euphoria, not the current situation where panic spreads (the following is just my personal opinion; investment requires your own judgment): $BTC
For friends who are in cash, several family office individuals have reached out to me, planning to allocate 5%-20% of funds to BTC, which I find reasonable, after all, the current exchange rate of BTC to gold is at a low; for those who are fully invested or have leveraged, I have repeatedly reminded before that it’s critical to immediately reduce leverage and shift to a defensive stance; for those with half positions, it might be better to remain unchanged and patiently wait for clear signals.
There are still the aftereffects of October and November; the market is still healing. Weekly trading volumes on exchanges have mostly dropped by 20%-40%, and market makers (MM) have not escaped this wave, with many having 'taken a tumble,' and some large institutions have faced liquidation due to leverage; I won't disclose specific names.
Currently, large funds are more focused on risk control, and the entire market needs time to adjust and slowly recover. @顶级交易员一凡
which led to some harsh yet realistic consensus I want to share with everyone.
After all, the current market is tough, and instead of making blind guesses, it’s better to face reality.
First, we must accept: the season of altcoins is truly over, so let go of any fantasies. In fact, I mentioned a year ago that VC investments in the Web3 primary market had already contracted, and the situation is now more evident. The black swan events of October and November had a nearly devastating impact on altcoins; retail investors now encountering altcoins find that the returns and risks are completely disproportionate, and it's highly likely that it will be a thankless task.
The only possible exception is infrastructure projects supported by real resources, such as stablecoins, RWA, and payment sectors, but most of these projects will not issue tokens, and there is no opportunity to participate.
Now, regarding DAT, the bubble is currently deflating. Long-tail DAT has no real buyers to take over, and many recent transactions are in a non-cash model of 'exchanging tokens for shares.' From the perspective of the project parties, token holders, and financial advisors, doing DAT can raise funds and make money, so they are naturally willing to do it; however, for investors, whether you are a private placement participant before the DAT listing or someone taking over after the listing, nine times out of ten you are likely to be the one getting harvested. $ETH
What should we do now? We must first recognize the stage and avoid rushing in. This is not the good old days of 'buying with your eyes closed and making a profit' from one or two years ago, but it hasn't reached the peak of 'selling with your eyes closed' in a bull market — the real peak should be a state of mindless market euphoria, not the current situation where panic spreads (the following is just my personal opinion; investment requires your own judgment): $BTC
For friends who are in cash, several family office individuals have reached out to me, planning to allocate 5%-20% of funds to BTC, which I find reasonable, after all, the current exchange rate of BTC to gold is at a low; for those who are fully invested or have leveraged, I have repeatedly reminded before that it’s critical to immediately reduce leverage and shift to a defensive stance; for those with half positions, it might be better to remain unchanged and patiently wait for clear signals.
There are still the aftereffects of October and November; the market is still healing. Weekly trading volumes on exchanges have mostly dropped by 20%-40%, and market makers (MM) have not escaped this wave, with many having 'taken a tumble,' and some large institutions have faced liquidation due to leverage; I won't disclose specific names.
Currently, large funds are more focused on risk control, and the entire market needs time to adjust and slowly recover. @顶级交易员一凡