Sunday Major Report: Everything We Need to Know

Technical Analysis / Cyclical Liquidity Analysis / Psychological Analysis: In last month's report at 65k, I clearly pointed out that a new range is forming. As previously stated, I expect Bitcoin to move sideways between 57k and 87k, with a volatility range of 33%. This sideways phase is not bullish but is preparing for the upcoming market in the next few months. I anticipate a downturn after this phase, with a drop towards the lower target of the 44-50k area from the range in the coming months. A year ago, in 2024, Bitcoin fluctuated within a range of 58k to 74k throughout the year. At that time, I repeatedly explained that this range had three main purposes, one of the most important being to draw future reference lines for the next bear market. I have often said that the range in 2024 will play a key role again in the same price area during the bear market of 2026. This is precisely what is happening now. Bitcoin is currently in the area of consolidation that occurred throughout the previous year before the breakout above 100k. In the context of a bear market, this area is not support but structure, and structures eventually break. Once the sideways phase is complete, I expect a breakdown of this range.

Bitcoin is entering a relief phase, meaning a few weeks of sideways movement and potential upside (as indicated by the upward potential box). If you compare the chart to 2022, we're completely mirroring the 2022 trend: back then, BTC dropped 52% from its all-time high, then rebounded 44% from the low, before kicking off the next strong downtrend. Just like we're seeing now! A complete repeat of 2022! Both dropped precisely 52% from their all-time highs, and now it's time to go sideways. This means Bitcoin is following the same fractal, and before continuing to break below 60k, there’s strong upside potential in the coming months. Market psychology supports this view since everyone is feeling fearful, with the Fear and Greed Index in absolute extreme fear. Before the new downtrend kicks in, we need to create additional liquidity below and grab the liquidity accumulated above. Remember, the core of the market is about grabbing liquidity, and now is a good time for market makers to let BTC enter a relief mode before continuing the bear market.

Current plan and range logic: I'm expecting significant sideways action between 57k and 87k. My clear intention is to buy between 57k and 60k, which is the bottom of the current box. A buy order triggered at 60k a few weeks ago, and I recently bought at 68k. The key is to understand that the bottom of the box doesn’t mean the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin; it means the bottom for the current phase. I’m buying at 57k–60k for percentage gains, not for a long-term plan as usual.

For instance, Bitcoin has risen about 12% from the 60k buy point I shared a few weeks ago, down 2% from the recent 68k buy. Does this mean 88k is a guaranteed target? No. It means two things. First, Bitcoin is in a recovery and rebound phase between 57k and 60k, which typically includes sideways movement. Second, I expect Bitcoin to potentially reach a peak around 88k during this phase, depending on the strength and duration of the sideways market. If the market allows for a touch of the 88k area, I’m willing to add to my existing short position that I opened and have been holding between 115k and 125k.

Positioning and execution: Some people like to complicate things. From my perspective, it's very straightforward. I hold a short position between 115k–125k. Meanwhile, aside from the recent 68k buy, I've set multiple spot buy orders between 57k and 60k. I plan to hold these gains because I expect sideways movement to continue for the next few weeks without an immediate further drop. I believe 57k–60k is a local bottom, not a macro bottom, and I expect that area to be tested multiple times. This is why buying there makes sense to me. As long as there’s still upside potential, there’s no reason to sell. When the moment to sell arrives, I’ll mention that I’ve sold or plan to sell.

Bitcoin will continue to go sideways until it doesn't. The largest and most aggressive long bets will be set at lower positions, specifically in the 50k level to below 40k area. That’s where I would re-enter with a larger position for the next cycle while closing out profits from my 115k–125k shorts, which I believe is the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin. According to my calculations, that area is expected to be reached between September and October, and during this period? As accurately mentioned a month ago, it will be a long and boring sideways phase.

Why am I buying in a bear market? Some people ask, if I expect Bitcoin to eventually drop below 50k, why buy now? The answer is simple: the market doesn’t move in a straight line. Even in a bear market, there will be strong counter-trend rallies. In 2022, Bitcoin almost continuously dropped from 68k to 33k. Then, within two months, it rebounded from 33k to 48.5k, a 50% increase, before continuing down to the final bottom around 16k. That’s how the market operates. We’re in a bear market. The rallies are temporary, meant to accumulate liquidity for further declines. My ultimate bear market target remains below 50k, specifically in the 40k area. That’s where I’ll establish my big position. Until then, my shorts between 115k–125k remain fully open. I’m not leveraging long. I’m buying spot between 57k and 60k while holding my shorts.