The pullback predicted in my last post on March 5th has arrived as expected, with Bitcoin falling from 74,000 to 68,000, a larger decline than I anticipated, but the overall direction is correct.
Last night, the non-farm payroll data unexpectedly decreased, with 92,000 jobs lost in February after seasonal adjustment, marking a negative value again since October 2025, while the market had expected an increase of 59,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate for February recorded at 4.4%, the highest since December 2025, slightly above the market expectation of 4.3%.
This set of data is significantly weaker than expected and will directly push the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, but constrained by concerns about inflation, the rate cut expectations remain cautiously optimistic. In summary, last night's data will weaken the dollar, benefiting risk assets (including Bitcoin).
However, the crypto market is known for dropping first before rising after good news lands. Half an hour after the data was released, $BTC continued to decline, and there are signs of a temporary bottoming out now, small positions can go long at 67,500 and add at 65,000.
Last night, the non-farm payroll data unexpectedly decreased, with 92,000 jobs lost in February after seasonal adjustment, marking a negative value again since October 2025, while the market had expected an increase of 59,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate for February recorded at 4.4%, the highest since December 2025, slightly above the market expectation of 4.3%.
This set of data is significantly weaker than expected and will directly push the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, but constrained by concerns about inflation, the rate cut expectations remain cautiously optimistic. In summary, last night's data will weaken the dollar, benefiting risk assets (including Bitcoin).
However, the crypto market is known for dropping first before rising after good news lands. Half an hour after the data was released, $BTC continued to decline, and there are signs of a temporary bottoming out now, small positions can go long at 67,500 and add at 65,000.