If you think this rebound can directly rush to 80,000, then the next 3 minutes might make you rethink what a 'key position determines life and death' means.
Last night when Bitcoin touched 73,600, the group started flooding the chat: 'The bull is back!' '74,000 is just a paper tiger!'
I didn't say anything, just pulled the candlestick to the daily chart and circled a number: 62,300.
Not 73,000, not 70,000, but 62,300.
Why is this position so important?
1. On-chain data is speaking: 62,300 is the 'watershed'.
First, let's look at some hard data:
Key support: 62,300 is the 'cost line' for ETF inflows and outflows over the past three months. Once it falls below this, the next place that can catch it is 56,800.
Key resistance: If 74,000 cannot be passed, then this rebound is a 'false breakthrough'. The range from 74,000 to 75,000 is exactly where the most concentrated positions were trapped at the end of last year.
On-chain signal: The stablecoin supply ratio (USDT Dominance) has decreased by 0.8% in the past week, indicating that funds are flowing back into the coin market. But this speed cannot support a direct take-off.
2. Which script do you stand on?
Script A (Bullish): If it stabilizes at 74,000 and breaks through 74,500, then the next stop will be the 80,000-84,000 range. Data from prediction platforms shows that the market currently believes the probability of Bitcoin reaching 84,000 is 53%.
Script B (Bearish): If 62,300 cannot hold, then the next pit is 56,800. Further down is what many analysts referred to at the beginning of the year as the 'golden pit'—around 55,000.
3. The situation with ETH is more delicate.
ETH's current situation is a bit like a 'follower':
Support level: 1,880 (there are over 2.8 million ETH positions here; breaking below will trigger a chain liquidation).
Resistance level: 2,165.
Short-term probability: The prediction market believes the chance of ETH breaking 2,500 in March is only 39%.
However, there is a signal worth noting: On Wednesday, ETH ETF saw a single-day inflow of 169 million USD, setting a two-month high. Money has come in, but it hasn’t started working yet.
4. My judgment.
Short-term: 70,000-74,000 will have repeated friction, don't chase the highs.
Mid-term: Keep an eye on 62,300. As long as it doesn’t break, the bullish structure remains; if it breaks, wait for 56,000-58,000 to take in more.
Long-term: If it really can drop to around 55,000, that would be an opportunity to build positions in batches, not a time for panic selling.
Let's chat in the comments: Do you think this wave can reach 80,000, or will it drop back to 60,000 first?