1. Core Results of the Meeting: The conservatives achieved a great victory
Rate cut but not enough: The Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) at this meeting in 2025, which is a typical 'defensive rate cut'. Just like a doctor feels that a patient has mild cold symptoms and prescribes some medicine to prevent worsening, rather than immediately administering strong medication.
The dot plot reveals the truth: The latest 'dot plot' from Federal Reserve officials suggests that the pace of rate cuts will slow down in the remaining meetings of 2025. This clearly conveys the central bank's continued high vigilance against inflation and its reluctance to rapidly and significantly cut rates at the pace expected by the market (or Trump).
Trump faced setbacks: At the meeting, aside from Trump's staunch ally Milan advocating for more aggressive rate cuts, other officials generally supported Powell's cautious strategy. This indicates that the Federal Reserve's independence has withstood political pressure.
2. Why did the market fall and then rebound?
Downward moment: After the announcement of the interest rate cut and the somewhat 'hawkish' dot plot, the market was instantly disappointed (U.S. stocks and BTC fell for about an hour). Investors are concerned about:
Economic health: Is the Federal Reserve so cautious because they have 'internal data' suggesting a potential economic downturn?
Financing costs: A slow rate cut means that borrowing costs for businesses and markets will remain high for a longer time, potentially suppressing economic growth.
Reasons for the rebound: Powell's remarks at the press conference eased panic:
He emphasized that this interest rate cut is 'preventive' and aims to maintain economic expansion rather than respond to a recession.
He reiterated the principle of data dependence, stating that if inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve can pause interest rate cuts or even reverse policy at any time.
The market realized afterward that the economy was not immediately collapsing, and panic eased, leading to a V-shaped rebound in asset prices.
3. Why is Trump angry?
He hopes the Federal Reserve will implement a series of significant interest rate cuts to strongly stimulate the economy, creating favorable conditions for his administration and potential re-election campaign.
The independence and cautious attitude of the Federal Reserve directly disrupted his plans. According to the dot plot, the number of interest rate cuts in the remaining meetings of 2025 (September, November, December) may be very limited, which cannot produce the economic stimulus effect he desires.
This is a strong signal: The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell (whose term ends in May 2026), will not easily yield to political pressure.
4. Unique signals from BTC: low turnover rate
Although price fluctuations are severe, the turnover rate (trading activity) has actually decreased, providing a key signal:
Large investors and long-term holders are still observing their positions and have not panic-sold due to short-term fluctuations.
Market liquidity has not significantly fled, and most are still waiting for clearer mid-term trend signals.
This indicates that the maturity of the cryptocurrency market is improving, and its reaction to macro events is no longer simply 'sell everything.'
Insights for ordinary investors:
Do not bet on event outcomes: Federal Reserve decision-making is complex and changeable; ordinary investors should focus on 'trends after decisions' rather than 'predicting decisions themselves.'
Pay attention to Trump's counterattack: He is very likely to criticize the Federal Reserve through social media, public speeches, or policy proposals, which could create new market volatility and trading opportunities.
Maintain reasonable positions: This way, one can capture potential rebound opportunities without being overly exposed to risks during volatility.
Asian markets are a key verification: Observing today's A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and the Japanese market's reactions can help determine whether global investors' risk preferences have truly stabilized.
Core advice: For ordinary investors, it is advisable to avoid high-frequency trading around the FOMC meetings. More attention should be paid to the mid-term trends of Federal Reserve policy and the long-term impacts of the global macro-political landscape in 2025 (especially the interaction between U.S. fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve).