This week (3/1~3/4) depth trend analysis of the crypto market on Binance: a strong rebound pattern has emerged, institutions and exchanges are 'buying the dip and accumulating.'
As of March 5, 2026 (Thursday morning), Binance spot data shows that the market has strongly rebounded from geopolitical shocks this week. Over the weekend (around 3/1), panic triggered by Middle East (Iran-related) events caused BTC to flash crash to a low of $63,000, followed by a violent surge; by 3/4 (Wednesday), BTC briefly surged above $73,000, closing steadily around $72,000, with a weekly increase of over 7-8%. ETH rebounded from $1,970 to over $2,100, SOL rose from the $85 range to $91-92, and BNB moved from around $630 to $658-660, showing relative resilience and following the rebound.
This is not a random rebound, but a 'buying momentum' indicated by both institutions and exchange data. Below, I will break down the trends, support structures, on-chain and institutional evidence, historical review, and future direction by each coin.
BTC (Binance BTC/USDT dominates the entire market)
This week's trend: oscillated and consolidated in the 66,000-68,500 range from Monday to Tuesday, surged on 3/3 with large ETF inflows, hitting a daily high of 73k+ on 3/4, closing around 72.9k (CoinMarketCap/Binance in sync). The 24h high-low fluctuation reached $3,300, a typical 'V-shaped reversal + breakout.'
Key support:
First level: 68,000-70,000 (the starting area for this week's rebound + near the 50-day MA, extremely strong)
Second level: 65,000-66,000 (above the weekend low psychological level + previous high trading volume area)
Third level: 60,000-63,000 (strong psychological support + February low, only bearish if broken)
Resistance: 73,500-75,000 (if stabilized, a new high will begin)
Structure: Daily line forming a hammer candle + engulfing bullish candle, breaking the downtrend line, RSI rebounding from the 30 oversold area to above 55, MACD golden cross momentum strengthening. This is a bullish pattern of higher lows + breakouts.
Institutional and exchange strategy evidence:
Institutions: The US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $458M on 3/3 (BlackRock IBIT contributed $263M), totaling over $1.1 billion in the first three days of this week, the strongest week in six weeks. Institutions are clearly accumulating at the 63k-66k range (SoSoValue / CoinGlass data).
On-chain: Exchanges like Binance saw outflows of 13,500 BTC (whales/institutions withdrawing), long-term holders (LTH) continue to withdraw from exchanges, exchange BTC reserves hitting multi-year lows—this is a classic signal of 'not selling, but accumulating'.
Exchanges (Binance): High volatility has led to a surge in trading volume, the inflow ratio of stablecoins is increasing but BTC is net outflowing, indicating users are withdrawing BTC for long-term holding rather than short-term selling.
Historical review: Similar to the V-shaped reversal after geopolitical/macroeconomic shocks in March-April 2024 (before the halving) or in May 2021—after news-driven flash crashes, the combination of ETFs/institutions + on-chain withdrawals appears, leading to a rise of 15-30% within 2-4 weeks. This time, if the 63k low holds, the probability of a rebound is extremely high.
Future direction: stabilize above 70k to be bullish, short-term target 75k-80k; if it pulls back to 68k, it could instead be a buying point. Risk: only turn neutral if it breaks below 65k.
ETH (Binance ETH/USDT)
This week's trend: rebounded from a low of 1,970 to 2,140 (+8%+), briefly reached the psychological level of 2,100 on 3/4, following BTC but with higher beta.
Chart structure and support levels:
First support: 2,000-2,025 (psychological level + daily MA)
Second support: 1,950-1,970 (this week's low)
Third support: 1,800 (deeper pullback zone)
Structure: Daily engulfing bullish candle + RSI golden cross, breaking the upper bound of the downtrend channel.
Institutional/exchange evidence: ETH ETF saw minor outflows on some days (-23M around 3/2), but spot + on-chain indicates LTH accumulation; Binance launched ETH/USD spot pair on 3/3, enhancing the convenience of institutional USD purchases. Exchange ETH reserves are decreasing, DeFi TVL is stable.
Historical review: The pattern in Q1 2024 is similar to 'BTC leading, ETH following but rebounding after ETF outflows', eventually leading to an increase in the ETH/BTC ratio.
Future direction: Follow BTC, stabilize above 2,100 to be bullish, target 2,300-2,500.
BNB (Binance BNB/USDT, the exchange's native coin benefits the most directly)
This week's trend: pulled from the 630 range to 658 (+5%+), relatively resilient, rebounded with the market on 3/4.
Chart structure and support levels:
First support: 620-630 (this week's low + strong trading area)
Second support: 600 (key psychological + 200-day MA)
Third support: 580-590
Resistance: 670-700 (if broken, it will be strong)
Structure: Daily candle rebound with a bullish candle + RSI rebounding from oversold, neutral to bullish.
Institutional/exchange evidence: Binance officially launched BNB/USD, ETH/USD, and SOL/USD spot pairs on 3/3, directly enhancing USD liquidity and institutional participation. BNB serves as a Gas/Token burn mechanism + platform fee distribution, with trading volume surging benefiting directly. On-chain BNB Chain activity is rebounding, and exchange BNB reserves are stable.
Historical review: Each time Binance launches a new trading pair or during the initiation phase of a bull market, BNB typically shows excess performance for 1-2 weeks (like after several upgrades in 2024).
Future direction: stabilize above 620 to be bullish, target 680-700 (the most direct beneficiary of Binance's ecological recovery).
SOL (Binance SOL/USDT, a high beta leading coin)
This week's trend: pulled from a low of 84-85 to 91.7 (+7%+), the strongest ecological narrative.
Chart structure and support levels:
First support: 85-88 (this week's low range)
Second support: 80-82
Resistance: 95-100
Structure: Strong bullish daily candle, breaking the short-term downtrend line, RSI is strong.
Institutional/exchange evidence: SOL ETF saw a slight inflow (3/2 +1.49M); Binance's new USD pair enhances liquidity; Solana's on-chain TVL/DeFi activity is leading, with high stablecoin transfer volume.
Historical review: Multiple occurrences in 2024 of the 'BTC rebounding → SOL leading' pattern, with increases often 1.5-2 times that of BTC.
Future direction: follow the market, stabilize above 88 to be bullish, target 95-100.
Summary: Institutions and Binance are strategizing for 'buying dips for long-term holding + liquidity upgrade'.
Evidence: Continuous large inflows into ETFs + large outflows of BTC/ETH from exchanges + Binance's new USD pair launched (3/3) + on-chain LTH withdrawals.
Future trend direction: This week's rebound confirms that 'the low point has passed', short-term (1-2 weeks) is bullish, BTC target 75k-80k, other coins follow. Risk management: strictly adhere to each coin's first support (BTC 68-70k, ETH 2,000, BNB 620, SOL 85), if broken, then switch to defensive.
Operational advice (applicable to both Binance spot and futures): You can build positions in batches near support; set stop-loss for long futures 1-2% below the first support.
This rebound is driven by institutions investing real capital; history tells us that this combination of 'news panic + ETF/on-chain buying' often leads to further gains. The key is to monitor daily ETF inflows and changes in Binance BTC reserves; I will update with new data in real time. Stay disciplined and steadily capitalize on this wave!
The above is for reference only.
(Data source: Binance spot, CoinMarketCap, SoSoValue ETF, Glassnode on-chain, Binance Square real-time posts, as of 3/5/2026)