The price of XRP enters March 2026 after almost two months of continuous downward pressure. Since the beginning of January, the altcoin has not managed to recover relevant resistances and has moved within a descending structure that reflects overall weakness in the crypto market.
Nevertheless, some on-chain indicators and historical data suggest that a transition phase may be approaching. To understand what to expect in the coming weeks, it is advisable to analyze key metrics and determining technical levels.
On-chain indicators suggest possible exhaustion of capitulation in XRP.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, known as NUPL, measures the proportion of unrealized gains or losses among holders. When it is in the capitulation zone, it indicates that the majority are holding latent losses. Historically, this phase tends to appear near the end of a prolonged bearish trend.
In the case of XRP from Ripple, the indicator has remained in capitulation territory since early February. In previous cycles, this period extended for about four weeks before stabilization. If the pattern repeats, selling pressure could begin to diminish in the first days of March.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, complements this reading. This indicator shows whether coins are sold at a profit or loss. Although it briefly surpassed the level 1 in mid-February, it quickly fell back below, indicating negative sales. A sustained move above 1 would be an early sign of structural recovery.
On the other hand, seasonality offers an interesting data point. Over the past twelve years, March has been statistically the strongest month of the first quarter for XRP, with an average return close to 18%.
Although past performance does not guarantee future results, it provides additional context in a time of uncertainty.
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Currently, XRP is trading around $1.30 and is just above the critical support at $1.27. This level coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, considered by many analysts as the typical bottom in bear markets.
Maintaining this threshold is crucial to avoid a deeper correction towards $1.11. A clear break below would invalidate any immediate rebound scenario and could extend lateral consolidation.
In case of stability, the next challenge will be to overcome the active downward line since January. A convincing close above $1.51 would mark a relevant technical change. That level coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a zone observed as a reference in recovery processes.
Higher up, between $1.76-$1.80, a significant volume of previous accumulation is concentrated. Approximately 1.85 billion XRP were bought in that range, valued at almost $2.83 million. The holders who bought there could generate resistance when trying to exit at breakeven.
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What do analysts say?
In recent hours, recognized analysts on X have shared perspectives on the behavior of XRP in March 2026, with the token being influenced by the geopolitical volatility catalyzed by the military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
“$XRP. Bullish divergence of the 5-day MACD. Price extension from the Gaussian Channel. If the March/April rally develops, a retest of the lower GC ($1.96) is very likely,” noted ChartNerdTA.
For BitGuru, XRP remains trapped in a larger bearish trend, having gone through several prolonged phases of lateral consolidation.
Currently, it is trading very close to a key technical support. If buyers can strongly defend this level, a relief bounce towards the intermediate resistance of the current range is likely, before the next relevant market movement is defined.
Consensus points to a possible rebound of 20-80% from current levels if the key support (around $1.27-$1.36) holds and geopolitical panic subsides.
“Everyone expects #XRP to fall below $1. Everyone expects Bitcoin to definitely give up. Everyone believes that if the U.S. attacks Iran, cryptocurrencies will collapse. The markets do not follow the majority,” emphasized CryptoBull.
In summary
The price of XRP faces March in a delicate technical zone, with on-chain indicators suggesting possible exhaustion of capitulation but without definitive confirmation.
The support at $1.27 will be key to determine if the asset manages to stabilize or continues its correction.
Historical data shows that March has been favorable in previous cycles, but the macro context and market reaction will define the outcome.
For now, the scenario combines risk and opportunity in similar proportions.
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