PA Daily | Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei Assassinated; Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees Net Inflow of $787 Million This Week

Today's News Highlights:
1. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: US and Israel Join Forces to Ignite the 'Middle East Powder Keg', Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate Data Coming Up
2. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei Assassinated
3. Trump Claims Uninterrupted Strikes Will Last for a Week or Even Longer
4. Binance Issues Safety Notice for All Staff, Urging UAE Employees to Avoid Outdoor Activities Immediately
5. X Platform Paid Cooperation Policy Update: Cryptocurrency, Investment Services, etc. Do Not Meet Promotion Criteria
6. Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees Net Inflow of $787 Million This Week, BlackRock's IBIT Leads with a Net Inflow of $503 Million
Macroeconomics & Regulation
Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: US and Israel Join Forces to Ignite the 'Middle East Powder Keg', Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate Data Coming Up
Amid a week of fluctuating global markets due to the repeated adjustments of Trump's tariff policy and escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions, major macro events for next week are as follows:
Monday 22:45, US February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value;
Monday 23:00, US February ISM Manufacturing PMI;
Wednesday 21:15, US February ADP employment numbers;
Thursday 03:00, Federal Reserve publishes Beige Book on economic conditions;
Thursday 20:30, US February Challenger Job Cuts;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28, US January import price index month-on-month;
Friday 21:30, US February unemployment rate, US February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US January retail sales month-on-month.
Long regarded as the growth engine of US stocks, technology and AI concept stocks have recently fallen into significant growth stagnation. The latest data shows that the Nasdaq Composite Index has not refreshed its historical high for four consecutive months, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have just experienced their worst month since March of last year.
This indicates that investors have deep doubts about the ability of AI technology to translate into actual profits, as Wall Street seeks to navigate a storm led by tech stocks.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has been assassinated.
According to CCTV News, on March 1 local time, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated. Ali Khamenei, born in 1939 in Mashhad, Iran, served as President of Iran from 1981 to 1989 and has been the Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. Khamenei survived a targeted assassination in June 1981, which paralyzed his right arm.
Trump stated that the uninterrupted strikes will last for a week or even longer.
According to a report from the Financial Associated Press citing CCTV News, US President Trump stated that the uninterrupted strikes against Iran will last for a week or even longer. Additionally, the White House announced the suspension of all travel and photography activities, meaning President Trump will not engage in any face-to-face communication with reporters that day.
Iran's crypto 'shadow economy' has reached $7.78 billion, with the public turning to Bitcoin for hedging.
According to Coindesk, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis stated that Iran's cryptocurrency ecosystem will reach $7.78 billion by 2025, growing faster than the previous year.
Iran legalized cryptocurrency mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized power and sell mined Bitcoin to the central bank. Recent estimates suggest that Iran accounts for between 2% to 5% of global Bitcoin mining power.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, as the country's main military force, has since deepened its influence in the cryptocurrency sector. Chainalysis estimates that by Q4 2025, addresses related to the IRGC will account for over 50% of Iran's total cryptocurrency inflow, with more than $3 billion received last year.
Another analysis by Elliptic found that the Central Bank of Iran accumulated at least $507 million in USDT by 2025, which may help stabilize the rial exchange rate and promote trade. However, this effort has largely failed, with data showing that the rial has depreciated by over 96% against the dollar. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians are turning to Bitcoin. During recent protests and internet outages, the amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from local exchanges to personal wallets surged sharply.
Informed sources: Saudi and Israeli pressure prompted Trump to order strikes against Iran.
According to Jinshi citing the Washington Post, four informed sources revealed that US President Trump launched a large-scale airstrike against Iran on Saturday, backed by two unusual Middle Eastern allies—Israel and Saudi Arabia—who had been lobbying for weeks. Informed sources stated that although Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly supports a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue, he has privately urged Trump to launch airstrikes multiple times over the past month.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to publicly lobby for US strikes against Iran, believing that Iran is Israel's 'mortal enemy'. Under combined pressure, Trump ordered large-scale airstrikes against Iran's leadership and military. Although US intelligence agencies assessed that the Iranian military is unlikely to pose a direct threat to the US homeland in the next decade, the attack still took place.
Trump: Resolving the Iran issue through diplomatic means is still feasible, and 'it's much easier now.'
According to Jinshi reports, US President Trump stated that he believes the strike against Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei by the US and Israel was effective and may create opportunities for diplomatic avenues. 'Obviously, it’s much easier now than it was a day ago,' Trump said when asked about the possibility of resolving the crisis through diplomatic means, 'because they were hit hard.' Trump expressed confidence in the results achieved so far.
Project dynamics
Aave founder: Aave Will Win proposal has passed Temp Check.
Aave founder Stani Kulechov announced that the Aave Will Win proposal Temp Check has been passed, which will push Aave Labs towards a fully token-centric model, directing 100% of product revenue to AAVE tokens. The next step will be to optimize the structure based on community feedback and enter the ARFC phase.
Previously, AaveLabs proposed to transfer 100% of protocol revenue to the DAO in exchange for operational funding.
Strategy raised the dividend yield of STRC maturing in March by 25 basis points to 11.50%.
Strategy stated on platform X that it raised the dividend yield of STRC maturing in March 2026 by 25 basis points to 11.50%.
Musk: Platform X adds theme selection feature for timelines.
Musk posted that users can now choose thematic content for their timeline. If they are tired of politically charged content, they can select other themes. Users can click on the 'For You' page.
Binance issued a security announcement requiring UAE employees to immediately avoid outdoor activities.
According to market news, due to the sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Binance issued a security announcement internally, requiring all employees in the UAE to immediately avoid outdoor activities and remain in safe indoor areas.
Recently, Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting Israel/US military objectives, with some missiles/drones flying over or aiming towards the UAE. Although most were intercepted by air defense systems, the UAE government issued an urgent safety alert to residents nationwide early this morning.
Platform X's updated paid cooperation policy: cryptocurrency, investment services, etc., do not meet promotional conditions.
The updated paid cooperation policy on platform X shows that financial products, services, or opportunities (including loans, investment services, cryptocurrency, buy now pay later services, and other finance-related content) are prohibited from paid promotional partnerships. In addition, the policy requires all paid cooperation content to be clearly marked as commercial in nature, such as 'advertisement' or 'promotional content', and ensures compliance with all applicable laws and regulations. Users violating this policy may face penalties such as being required to delete posts or suspension of accounts.
Analysis & Opinion
Data shows: Holding Bitcoin for at least three years can avoid losses.
An analysis by Bitwise reviewed Bitcoin's price history from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026, concluding that if Bitcoin is held for at least three years, the probability of loss will drop to only 0.70%. Holding for more than three years further reduces the risk of loss: 5 years is 0.2%, 10 years is 0%. Traders who hold for less than three years face a higher risk of loss, such as day traders facing a loss probability of 47.1%.
Despite Bitcoin falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak, currently trading around $65,000, it is still far above its realized price of $34,780 for 3 to 5 years, meaning investors who bought and held during that period still enjoy about 90% profit. The majority of traders who purchased in the past two years are in a loss position, with those holding for 6 to 12 months facing a cost basis of about $101,250, resulting in a loss of about 35%; those holding for 1 to 2 years have a cost basis of about $78,150, resulting in a loss of about 15%.
Ethereum founder introduced the EIP-8141 proposal, marking significant progress in account abstraction technology.
According to Ethereum co-founder vitalik.eth's post on social media platform X, he reviewed the history since the proposal of account abstraction (EIP-86) in early 2016 and introduced the newly released EIP-8141 proposal. This proposal is a comprehensive proposal aimed at addressing all the legacy issues that account abstraction aims to solve. The proposal introduces the concept of 'frame transactions', where a single transaction may contain multiple call frames that can read each other's call data and authorize both the sender and the Gas payer. For example, a typical multi-signature account transaction may consist of verification frames and execution frames; if the account does not yet exist, a deployment frame can be pre-added.
For scenes using non-ETH tokens like RAI to pay Gas, it can be implemented through the payment master contract: the transaction frame sequence includes verification, paying the master verification, sending RAI to the payment master, execution, and the payment master refunding unused RAI and converting it to ETH, etc. The entire process does not require intermediaries. Regarding privacy protocols, valid ZK-SNARKs can be checked through the payment master contract to pay Gas, or a 2D nonce mechanism can be adopted, allowing a single account to receive transactions from multiple users in parallel, thus completely eliminating the 'public broadcaster' issues caused by protocols like Railgun and PP that result in poor user experiences. Regarding security, at the chain level, only transactions that include a return ACCEPT and mark the payment Gas verification frame are valid. In the initial phase of the memory pool layer, very conservative rules will be adopted, and an optional more aggressive memory pool will be established, with the former gradually expanding over time. Furthermore, this proposal is highly complementary to the FOCIL mechanism, ensuring that complex operations can be directly treated as first-level transactions with a guarantee of rapid inclusion. Vitalik stated that after more than a decade of research, these technologies are expected to be realized within a year through the Hegota hard fork.
Sam Altman responded to the US Department of War's choice of OpenAI over Anthropic: possibly due to differences in operational control demands.
OpenAI founder Sam Altman launched an AMA on platform X responding to the recent collaboration with the US Department of War. He disclosed that Anthropic and the US Department of War were once 'very close to reaching an agreement', and during most of the negotiations, both sides had a strong willingness to collaborate. However, in a highly tense negotiation environment, the situation could quickly deteriorate, which may be one of the important reasons the deal ultimately did not materialize. In terms of security philosophy, OpenAI adopts a 'layered approach', including building a security tech stack, deploying front-line deployment engineers (FDE), involving security researchers in projects, delivering via cloud deployment, and directly collaborating with the US Department of War. Compared to setting specific prohibitive clauses in contracts, Anthropic seems to focus more on clear restrictions at the contract level, whereas OpenAI tends to rely on applicable legal frameworks and technical security measures as core safeguards. However, other companies may have different positions on this, and Anthropic may wish to gain more operational control in collaboration, which could also be one of the reasons for the divergence in paths between the two.
Important data
Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows of $787 million this week, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with net inflows of $503 million.
Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of $80.46 million this week, with Grayscale's ETHE leading with net inflows of $40.4688 million.
Six Polymarket accounts are suspected of insider trading, betting on the US strike against Iran and earning $1 million.
According to Jinshi reports, analytics firm BubblemapsSA stated that six accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket made bets on the US striking Iran before February 28, earning approximately $1 million in profit. These accounts were newly opened in February, and they only placed bets on the timing of a potential US strike. Some shares in these accounts were bought just a few hours before the first reports of an explosion in Tehran, and some shares were even purchased at about ten cents each.
This betting pattern has raised suspicions of insider trading, with blockchain analysts pointing out that similar patterns have appeared in other suspected insider trading cases in prediction markets, such as an insider who profited significantly by betting on Venezuelan President Maduro's ouster in January.
Aave governance disputes have lasted for three months, with TVL dropping from $36 billion to $26.5 billion.
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the governance dispute between Aave's development team and the community has lasted for three months, during which Aave's TVL has dropped from $36 billion to $26.5 billion (defillama data): this is influenced both by the depreciation of major deposit/collateral assets like WBTC and ETH and by whales switching to other lending platforms due to governance disputes.
The biggest whale in terms of switching positions is Justin Sun. During this period, he withdrew $910 million in stablecoins from Aave and subsequently deposited them into Sky and its sub-DAO Spark. Since early December, his deposit amount on Sky and Spark has increased from $570 million to $1.48 billion.