CryptoQuant: the bottom is not here yet. Bitcoin continues to shed leverage, but there is no capitulation
Open interest in futures on CME has fallen by 47% — almost like in 2022, when the decline was 45%. The futures yield curve has been moving down since 2025, repeating the trajectory that preceded the bear markets of 2019 and 2022. But there is a nuance.
The slope of the curve is still positive. In previous cycles, the final bottom was formed only when the curve went into negative territory — that is, when the demand for leverage completely disappeared and acute capitulation began.
This is not the case now. The market is gradually reducing leverage, positions are being reloaded, but without panic. This is a classic picture of a consolidative or mid-cycle bear market. Capitulation is likely still ahead.
$BTC
Open interest in futures on CME has fallen by 47% — almost like in 2022, when the decline was 45%. The futures yield curve has been moving down since 2025, repeating the trajectory that preceded the bear markets of 2019 and 2022. But there is a nuance.
The slope of the curve is still positive. In previous cycles, the final bottom was formed only when the curve went into negative territory — that is, when the demand for leverage completely disappeared and acute capitulation began.
This is not the case now. The market is gradually reducing leverage, positions are being reloaded, but without panic. This is a classic picture of a consolidative or mid-cycle bear market. Capitulation is likely still ahead.
$BTC