The history of greed. You are inside.
Do you remember October 2025? 126,000. Everyone was shouting: "New era!" ETFs were buying everything. Everyone is a genius.
Stop. History repeats itself.
Bitcoin is a mirror of greed. Cycle after cycle. Now it's the finale: a rise to 136,000, then a crash to 35,000.
WHY 136,000 IS A REALITY
Technology does not lie
July 2025: breakout 120,000. Target โ 136,000 (Fibonacci 100%), then 160,000.
Timothy Peterson: 50% chance to close October above 140,000.
Institutional FOMO
The third quarter of 2025 โ madness:
- Harvard +257% โ 3,868 BTC (441 million)
- Emory +91%
- Abu Dhabi โ the first recognition: 4,521 BTC
- Wells Fargo 491 million, Morgan Stanley 724 million, JP Morgan 346 million โ all bought
These are not "degens". These are conservatives. Their entry created a shortage: ETFs bought 1.2 billion/month, mining โ 450 BTC/day.
Demand is 10 times higher than supply. The price explodes.
Cyclical logic
Halving in April 2024 โ reward 3.125 BTC. After the halving โ 18 months of growth at 15.4 times from the bottom.
The bottom of November 2022: 15,479. Theoretical peak: 243,000. But the market will stop earlier. 136,000 โ the crossover point of greed and fear.
WHY 35,000 โ INEVITABILITY
Fractal of the past
Analyst Chiefy compared three cycles:
2017: 21,000 โ -84% โ 3,200 (410 days)
2021: 69,000 โ -77% โ 15,479 (376 days)
2025: 126,000 โ -72%? โ 35,000?
The fall may take 10 days.
"This time is different"? A lie!
At 136,000:
1. Cascade liquidation โ every fifth with leverage. A 20% drop = apocalypse.
2. ETF outflows โ institutions lock in profits. Mass exodus.
3. Regulatory panic โ SEC will tighten rules.
4. Macro shock โ the Fed will raise rates.
History is relentless
After every bull market โ a drop:
2011: +2,484% โ -94%
2013: +12,804% โ -83%
2017: +2,943% โ -84%
2021: +1,692% โ -78%
2025: +716% โ -50-72%?
Bubbles burst. Always.
CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
Phase 1: Euphoria (120,000 โ 136,000)
The media screams. Taxi drivers advise. Politicians promise reserves. FOMO โ the pinnacle.
Forecast: 136,000 โ 285,000. The crowd believes in 200,000.
Phase 2: Crack (136,000 โ 110,000)
"Healthy pullback!" โ say analysts. Buyers are entering. Bounce to 120,000.
The structure is broken. ETF outflows. Whales on exchanges.
Phase 3: Capitulation (110,000 โ 35,000)
Minus 30% in a day. Stop-losses. Algorithms sell.
February 2026: -50% from the peak (63,000). Full cycle: 30,000-35,000.
At the bottom:
- Harvard holds
- Retail curses and leaves
- Miners shut down
- Media: "Bitcoin is dead!" (for the 147th time)
PHILOSOPHY OF THE CYCLE
2009: 0.0008
2010: 0.004 โ pizza for 10,000 BTC
2011: 31 โ 2 โ -94%
2013: 1,156 โ 200 โ -83%
2017: 19,783 โ 3,200 โ -84%
2021: 68,789 โ 15,479 โ -78%
2025: 126,000 โ 35,000?
Every cycle is an echo. We slowed volatility but did not cancel cycles.
Matthew Hougan (Bitwise): "The 4-year cycle has ended". No โ it transformed. Longer, but no less painful.
CHOICE
Bitcoin is a test of endurance.
Do you believe in 136,000? Remember: after it โ 35,000.
Waiting for 35,000? Remember: after โ 500,000+ .
Facts:
- After a fall of 70%+ โ a rise of 100%+
- Held longer than 4 years โ not in the red
- Every "winter" ended stronger
Truth: The market punishes greed. 136,000 โ lock in. 35,000 โ buy.
Bitcoin will not die. But your nerves โ maybe.
Not advice. The emotions of history. Keep your nerves. The resilient survive.$BTC 