Brother Fei's Beef
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K线人生飞哥
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Thoughts on the future of $BTC
Bitcoin's drop from 126,000 to 60,000 cannot be classified as a crash; it is merely in a downward cycle at this stage. Many people believe this time will be different because Wall Street capital has intervened, including Treasury investors represented by MicroStrategy and institutional investment channels represented by ETFs. The global process of compliance is also accelerating. Under these narratives, while Bitcoin cannot rise indefinitely, it at least shouldn't plummet like in previous cycles.
As a result, that was an overestimation; the four-year cycle pattern has still not been broken this time. Even if more institutions are providing support, it will still fall when it needs to fall, and the downward trend remains unstoppable. Bitcoin, like gold, is a speculative asset where you cannot directly price it; its rise and fall are entirely based on emotions and demand. However, once demand weakens and emotions begin to fade, coupled with a large number of profit-taking and leverage liquidation in the derivatives market, a significant correction becomes inevitable.
Everyone has their own investment logic, and market changes are composed of countless investment logics. The trends that can influence market movements are often those few logics that have the most adherents, meaning consensus determines value. For example, with gold, if you are betting on global de-dollarization, you should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle and changes in various countries' U.S. Treasury reserves, as well as the changes in the dollar's proportion in a basket of currencies. These factors can all influence gold's long-term trend.
If you are betting on the increasing tension in global political relations, then keep an eye on the latest international situation, such as whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict will worsen again, the possibility of sudden changes in the Middle East situation, and the increase in direct friction between the U.S. and other countries. These factors can also affect the medium- to long-term trends of gold.
You can bet on fundamentals, you can bet on technicals, and you can combine both to place your bets. In short, investment also requires a logical consistency to form the principles and basis for buying and selling transactions.
When one day these logics reach their limits or speculation becomes overheated, the current situation of Bitcoin is what gold may face in the future because no asset rises indefinitely; it is merely a process of redistributing wealth through cycles of ups and downs.
Bitcoin's drop from 126,000 to 60,000 cannot be classified as a crash; it is merely in a downward cycle at this stage. Many people believe this time will be different because Wall Street capital has intervened, including Treasury investors represented by MicroStrategy and institutional investment channels represented by ETFs. The global process of compliance is also accelerating. Under these narratives, while Bitcoin cannot rise indefinitely, it at least shouldn't plummet like in previous cycles.
As a result, that was an overestimation; the four-year cycle pattern has still not been broken this time. Even if more institutions are providing support, it will still fall when it needs to fall, and the downward trend remains unstoppable. Bitcoin, like gold, is a speculative asset where you cannot directly price it; its rise and fall are entirely based on emotions and demand. However, once demand weakens and emotions begin to fade, coupled with a large number of profit-taking and leverage liquidation in the derivatives market, a significant correction becomes inevitable.
Everyone has their own investment logic, and market changes are composed of countless investment logics. The trends that can influence market movements are often those few logics that have the most adherents, meaning consensus determines value. For example, with gold, if you are betting on global de-dollarization, you should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle and changes in various countries' U.S. Treasury reserves, as well as the changes in the dollar's proportion in a basket of currencies. These factors can all influence gold's long-term trend.
If you are betting on the increasing tension in global political relations, then keep an eye on the latest international situation, such as whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict will worsen again, the possibility of sudden changes in the Middle East situation, and the increase in direct friction between the U.S. and other countries. These factors can also affect the medium- to long-term trends of gold.
You can bet on fundamentals, you can bet on technicals, and you can combine both to place your bets. In short, investment also requires a logical consistency to form the principles and basis for buying and selling transactions.
When one day these logics reach their limits or speculation becomes overheated, the current situation of Bitcoin is what gold may face in the future because no asset rises indefinitely; it is merely a process of redistributing wealth through cycles of ups and downs.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.