Ethereum is at a critical turning point. The confluence of mixed technical indicators (high RSI, MACD losing momentum, Bollinger Bands contracting) with solid fundamentals (institutional accumulation, staking growth) suggests that the next 24 hours will be
decisive in determining the medium-term direction.

A breakout of the $4,385 level with confirming volume would be the clearest signal of bullish continuation towards $5,000, while a loss of the $4,260 support could initiate a deeper correction towards $4,000-$3,800.

Ethereum is undergoing a critical consolidation phase after reaching its all-time high of $4,953 on August 24, 2025.

Key Technical Indicators

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 79.80

The RSI at 79.80 indicates that ETH is in nearly overbought territory, very close to the 80 threshold. This indicates that the price has experienced considerable bullish momentum but also signals the possibility of a short-term technical correction.

MACD
(Moving Average Convergence Divergence): 10.46

The positive MACD at 10.46 maintains a bullish signal, although several recent technical analyses
indicate that the MACD histogram is showing some loss
of momentum in the bearish zone. This suggests that buying strength is
gradually decreasing.

Bollinger Bands

The latest technical data shows that Ethereum is
positioned at 39.62% of the width of the Bollinger Bands, sitting closer to the middle band ($4,438.53) than to the extremes. The bands are contracting, which typically indicates a decrease in volatility and suggests a
upcoming significant directional move.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels

Key resistances:

$4,340-$4,385: Immediate resistance with a downward trend line
$4,500: Critical psychological level that will act as an entry point towards
higher levels
$4,956: Recent all-time high representing major resistance

Important Supports:

$4,260-$4,280:
Current immediate support
$4,200: Major technical support
$4,100: Significant support zone

Ascending Triangle Pattern

ETH shows an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, with a potential target of $6,000 if decisively breaking the $4,500 level.

Fundamental Events to Consider

Ethereum ETF Flows

Positive Trend Reversal: Ethereum ETFs experienced a significant reversal on September 9, recording net inflows of $44.16 million after six consecutive days of outflows totaling over $780 million. This inflow was entirely driven by BlackRock's ETHA fund.

Massive Institutional Accumulation

Whale Movements: Despite ETF outflows, aggressive institutional accumulation is observed. One whale acquired $86.8 million in ETH and staked it immediately, while approximately 226,400 ETH (valued at $980 million) left centralized exchanges in the past week.

BitMine and Corporate Accumulation: BitMine has accumulated nearly 2 million ETH ($8.69 million), positioning to own 5% of the total ETH supply, surpassing Michael Saylor's accumulation rate with Bitcoin.

Network Activity and Staking

Staking Growth: 30% of the total ETH supply is now staked, with over 35 million ETH locked. The staking queue reached 826,876 ETH, signaling strong institutional demand and confidence.

Active addresses: Daily active addresses recovered to 645,000, a significant increase from 439,000 in July, reflecting growing user demand.

Technical Developments of the Network

Fusaka Update: Developers are finalizing the testnet plans for the Fusaka hard fork, scheduled for Q4 2025. This
update includes improvements in validator efficiency through
PeerDAS and adjustments to the gas limit.


Market Analysis and Macro Context


Historic Monthly MACD Crossover


A rare monthly MACD crossover is highlighted that hasn't occurred since before the 2020-2021 rally. Merlijn The Trader described it as a "monster ignition" after
completing a multi-year consolidation phase.

Federal Reserve Expectations

The Fed's upcoming interest rate decisions are crucial for ETH. A 0.25% cut could push ETH towards the $5,200-$5,600 range, while a more aggressive 0.50% cut could catalyze a rally towards $6,000
in Q4.

Estimation of Values and Trends for the Next 24 Hours

Bullish Scenario (Probability: 60%)

If ETH decisively breaks $4,385:

Immediate target: $4,500-$4,550
Trading range: $4,400-$4,600

Catalysts:
Confirmation volume above $30 billion, maintaining RSI
below 85

Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%)

If ETH loses the $4,260 support:

Downside target: $4,200-$4,160
Consolidation range: $4,100-$4,300

Risk Factors:
Continuation of ETF outflows, weakening volume

Key Trading Levels for 24 Hours

Bullish entry: Above $4,385 with confirming volume
Stop loss: $4,220
Take profit: $4,500 (first target), $4,550 (extension)

Bearish entry: Below $4,260
Stop loss: $4,340
Take profit: $4,200 (first
target), $4,160 (extension)