#BTC
There are 4 blocks: structure, short zones, Fibonacci projection, and whale reading.
1_. MARKET STRUCTURE (Smart Money Concept)
🔎 What really happened:
Recent high: 68,687
New minimum: 63,860
This generates:
❌ Last Higher Low Break
❌ Change of Character (ChoCH)
✅ Confirmation of Bearish Break of Structure (BOS)
Current sequence:
HH → HL → LH → LL
This is confirmed bearish technical change on 4H.
2_ 🎯 EXACT ZONES FOR SHORT (Technical Pullback)
After a strong drop, the price usually returns to:
🔹 Zone 1: 65,000 – 65,500
Converges with:
MA7
Psychological zone
Recent liquidity
🔹 Zone 2 (stronger): 66,000 – 66,400
Converges with:
Old broken support zone
MA25
Possible bearish Order Block
👉 If the price gets there with decreasing volume = optimal short zone.
Clear invalidation: Close 4H above 67,200.
3_ 📐 FIBONACCI PROJECTION (Real targets)
Taking the impulse from 68,687 → 63,860:
Probable extensions:
1.272 → 62,900
1.618 → 61,500
2.0 → 59,800
📌 61,500 is a very likely level if pressure continues.
4_ 🐋 Whale movement?
Signals I see:
✔ Large impulsive candlestick
✔ Clean break without prior sideways range
✔ High volume on the drop
✔ Extreme RSI
That usually indicates:
Long liquidations
Stop hunt below structure
Previous distribution near 68K
This doesn't look like retail sell-off.
Seems like a structured move.
5_. 📊 RSI and StochRSI – Current momentum
RSI 23 = oversold
Typical scenario:
* 4H technical bounce
* New bearish impulse
* Future divergence before real change
* Current probabilities (technical reading)
Bearish continuation: 65%
Technical bounce 1–2 4H candlesticks: 80%
Immediate bullish change: 20%
7_ Professional operational scenario
Scenario A (most likely):
Bounce to 65.5–66K
Rejection
Drop to 62.9 → 61.5
Scenario B (less likely):
Recovers 66.5 strongly
Consolidating
Breaks 67.2
Nullifies bearish structure
8_. Critical point now
The zone 63,800–64,000 is:
Liquidity swept
Zone of possible technical bounce
But it's not strong structural support
If it drops below 63,800 with strong volume → bearish acceleration.
📌 Institutional conclusion
Yes, there is a valid bearish break.
Yes, the structure changed on the 4H.
Yes, it's a strong intention move.
But it's in oversold territory, so: First, a technical bounce. Then, we'll define the next move.
📊 Analyze daily to see if this is the start of a macro drop
🔥 Calculate exact liquidation levels
🧠 Check correlation with DXY and SP500
📈 Create entry plan with professional risk management
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GREETINGS ❤️💛❤️