As of now, risk assets have declined in advance. The essence

As of now, risk assets have declined in advance. The essence is not a single negative factor, but rather three uncertainties overlapping at the same time.
First is the Middle East direction. U.S.-Iran negotiations are wavering, Trump has released signals of attacks, and the geopolitical risk premium is being revalued. The market fears such variables that "may occur but the intensity is unknown". Once energy and shipping are involved, risk assets will first cut positions and then discuss further.
Second are tariffs and finances. After the Supreme Court denied the legality of IEEPA taxation, Trump switched to using Section 122 to impose a 15% tariff globally, effective February 24. Old tariffs have been overturned, causing disturbances in expected fiscal deficits; the new tariffs have tightened U.S.-China trade sentiment once again. This is both fiscal uncertainty and global trade uncertainty. The intensity may not be stronger than last year, but the path has become more complex.
Third is the interest rate path. The January interest rate meeting showed a hawkish tone, inflation remains sticky, employment resilience is still present, and economic data looks more like a soft landing than a recession. The market originally bet on quick interest rate cuts, but now the probability of cuts in June and July is less than 50%. It’s not that cuts can’t happen, but rather that they "won’t happen quickly". The ambiguity of the interest rate rhythm itself is a source of pressure.
What risk assets fear the most is not a clear negative factor, but rather this kind of multi-threaded uncertainty. A clear negative factor is actually easier to price, while the most frustrating situation is the back-and-forth swings without an anchor.
As for the decline of $BTC , it may not be a bad thing. Early release of emotions can help accelerate the pace. The sooner BTC completes a secondary bottom and structural confirmation, the faster market confidence will recover afterward. Dragging without dropping or experiencing a downward trend can hurt the structure even more.
In the short term, it’s about clearing emotions; in the medium term, it’s still about whether uncertainties can converge. As long as variables start to clarify, even if it’s not a favorable situation, the market will take a breath of relief.

.css-1iqe90x{box-sizing:border-box;margin:0;min-width:0;color:#EAECEF;}As of now, risk assets have declined in advance. The essence is not a single negative factor, but rather three uncertainties overlapping at the same time.

As of now, risk assets have declined in advance. The essence is not a single negative factor, but rather three uncertainties overlapping at the same time.