Based on the latest market data (as of February 22, 2026), here is a detailed analysis of the Hyperliquid (HYPE) project, with data primarily referenced from authoritative platforms such as CoinMarketCap.
1. Market Cap and Valuation Analysis
Current market value data (as of February 22, 2026)
Circulating Market Cap: approximately $7.5B (approximately 750 million USD)
Total Market Cap / Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): approximately $30.3B (approximately 3 billion USD)
Circulating supply: approximately 238.4M (238.4 million tokens)
Total supply: approximately 962.3M (962.3 million tokens)
Is the valuation worth it?
Current status: The circulating market cap of HYPE has entered the top 20 in cryptocurrency rankings, indicating a high valuation by the market. Its FDV ($3 billion) is much higher than the circulating market cap, suggesting that a significant amount of tokens (approximately 76%) are still locked or awaiting release, which is typically seen as a potential 'sell pressure' risk.
Conclusion: In the short term, the circulating market value has fully reflected its position as a leading decentralized perpetual contract exchange; but in the long term, the total market value (FDV) is relatively high, and if subsequent ecosystem growth cannot absorb the massive token release, the current price may be at risk of overvaluation.
2. Recycling burn mechanism and monthly data
Principle of the burn mechanism operation
The burn mechanism of HYPE is mainly divided into two parts, with the core being 'protocol revenue buyback':
Protocol revenue buyback: Hyperliquid uses 97% of its trading fee revenue to buy back HYPE tokens. This portion of tokens is deposited into the 'Assistance Fund' and is deemed to be permanently burned through governance voting (i.e., 'social consensus burn'), no longer counted in circulation and total supply.
Direct burn: In spot trading, the transaction fees of the HYPE-USDC trading pair will directly burn HYPE tokens.
Specific monthly burn value
Based on historical data, the intensity of HYPE's burn is highly correlated with trading volume. During active trading periods, its annualized burn value can reach hundreds of millions of dollars.
Historical reference: At the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, HYPE once burned approximately 37-37.5 million HYPE through governance voting, valued at around $900M - $1B (9-10 billion dollars) at the time.
Monthly estimate: If calculated on an annualized burn of $300 million to $500 million, the average monthly burn value is approximately $25 million to $42 million. But please note, this is a dynamically changing figure that entirely depends on the platform's trading activity.
3. Model sustainability and undervaluation analysis
Is this model sustainable?
It is sustainable, but there are periodic fluctuations. The model is essentially 'trade and burn'; as long as Hyperliquid can maintain its leading position in the decentralized perpetual contract market (usually occupying 20%-70% of the market share), its fee revenue can support ongoing burns.
Risk point: The model is highly dependent on trading volume. In bear markets or periods of market downturn, shrinking trading volume can lead to reduced buyback funds, making it difficult to effectively hedge against inflationary pressure from token unlocks.
Is this model significantly undervalued?
From a mechanistic perspective, there is potential for undervaluation. HYPE's burn mechanism (97% revenue buyback) is one of the most aggressive deflationary models in the DeFi space, with a strong value capture ability. If Hyperliquid can successfully build its public chain ecosystem (Hyper EVM) and launch the stablecoin USDH in the future, its revenue sources will no longer be limited to trading fees, and the value of this model will be further amplified.
From the data perspective, it has not been 'significantly undervalued'. The current high FDV ($30.3 billion) already incorporates the market's high expectations for its future growth. Unless its trading volume or ecosystem scale experiences several times of growth, the current valuation is already quite sufficient.
Summary
HYPE is a 'high valuation, high buyback' asset. Its burn mechanism is at the top level in the industry, but the current total market value (FDV) is high, which means future growth will need to be supported by significant ecosystem expansion. For investors, it is essential to closely monitor the alignment between its token unlock progress and trading volume data.