Chapter 501: The Discrepancy at Three A.M.
On February 19 at 3 A.M. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the January monetary policy meeting. Global market attention focused on one point: the minutes mentioned for the first time that some officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates. Meanwhile, 'multiple' officials indicated that further rate cuts might be appropriate if inflation decreases; 'some' officials expressed caution regarding rate cuts. The internal divisions are unprecedentedly severe. The market is like a torn cloth, with both bulls and bears fiercely debating their positions.
Chapter 502: Interpreting the 'Subtext' of the Minutes
I convened the core think tank to analyze the minutes word by word. We discovered a key point: most officials warned that the decline in inflation might be 'slower and more uneven' than expected. This indicates that hawkish forces are accumulating. More subtly, the minutes mention that the impact of tariffs on core commodity prices may begin to weaken this year—this is an indirect endorsement of Trump's tariff policy, implying that inflationary pressures may stem from deeper structural factors. We concluded that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the short term, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in June (around 50%) are overly optimistic.
Chapter 513: The Speculative Profit from Expected Differences
Based on this, I established a large position: shorting U.S. short-term treasury futures while going long on volatility products related to interest rate-sensitive REITs. As the market gradually realizes that interest rate cuts are not a certainty, treasury yields will rise, and prices will fall; while volatility will soar. My counterpart is those retail investors and quantitative funds who are superstitious about the 'Fed put options.' They think a drop will prompt a rescue, but they forget that this time, those who come to rescue are also in a fight.
Chapter 504: Warsh's 'Loyalty Pledge'
The market is still hotly discussing another detail: Kevin Warsh, the next nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, reportedly signed a 'loyalty pledge.' This means the traditional 'independence' of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges. If the future Fed Chair is accountable to the President rather than Congress, monetary policy will be completely politicized. I simulated this scenario in the 'Gaia Brain': the dollar's credit accelerates its loss, a long-term bull market for gold is established, and non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin will encounter an epic market.
Chapter 505: The Dusk of the Central Bank
The storm over the meeting minutes has gradually calmed down, but it has opened a wound: the mystery of the central bank has been torn away, exposing internal divisions and political infiltration to the sunlight. In the future, the market will no longer believe that the central bank can provide the 'only truth,' but must learn to survive amid divergences and to arbitrage in the game. The dusk of the central bank is the dawn for traders. But this also means that we can no longer interpret any policy as an absolute direction.
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