The price of XRP has remained almost unchanged over the past week. This sideways movement shows clear uncertainty in the market. Seemingly, institutional activity looks favorable. XRP ETFs have recorded three consecutive weeks of inflows. However, beneath this positive news, hidden weakness is quietly building.

Several technical analysis signals and on-chain indicators suggest that the price of the altcoin may be closer to a collapse than it seems.

Inflows to ETFs remain positive, but institutional strength is quickly weakening.

ETF funds on XRP recorded consecutive capital inflows for three weeks. The week ending February 6 saw inflows of $36.04 million. By the week ending February 20, inflows had dropped to just $1.84 million.

This means a drop in weekly inflows of nearly 95% over three weeks.

Inflows to ETFs show how much institutional capital is entering the asset. Increasing inflows usually signal rising confidence. Decreasing inflows, even if positive, indicate that institutional conviction is weakening.

This slowdown by institutions is visible on the chart. The price of XRP fell below its weekly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on February 18 and has not recovered that line since.

When the price falls below the VWAP, it means that institutions are generally holding underwater positions. This usually limits the desire for further purchases. Previously, when XRP broke the weekly VWAP, it fell nearly 26%. The correction since February 18 is still ongoing.

At the same time, XRP is close to a hidden bearish divergence formed between February 6 and 20. During this period, the price of XRP marked a lower high, while the relative strength index (RSI) formed a higher high.

This setup signals weakening rebound strength and possible prolonged declines for the altcoin, especially if the price breaks below $1.379. Meanwhile, weakening ETF inflows, loss of the VWAP, and bearish divergence indicate that institutional strength is fading.

Flows on exchanges and buying dips explain why the price has not yet collapsed

Despite falling below the VWAP, XRP did not plunge sharply as it did before. On-chain data helps explain this.

One of the key indicators is the change in net positions on exchanges. It shows whether coins are flowing onto exchanges or being withdrawn. Outflows usually indicate purchases, while declining outflows suggest weakening demand.

On February 18, outflows from exchanges reached 71.32 million coins. Recently, they dropped to around 41.69 million XRP. This is a decrease of about 41%.

This shows that buying pressure has clearly weakened, although it is still present. Conversely, another indicator shows that buyers are still active. The Money Flow Index (MFI) tracks the actual inflow of funds into the asset. Between February 6 and 19, the XRP price was falling while the MFI was rising. This divergence shows that buyers at the dips are slowly accumulating the coin even with weak momentum.

This accumulation after declines explains why XRP maintains stability after losing the VWAP. Buyers absorb the supply pressure. For now, this has prevented a sudden crash. However, this support is limited. When buyers at the dips weaken, the risk of declines may quickly increase.

The price of XRP faces a critical test at the level of $1.25

Data regarding the acquisition price shows that the altcoin is approaching a key support zone. The acquisition price refers to levels at which investors previously bought coins.

These levels often serve as strong support or resistance. Currently, the most important support cluster is around $1.26 and includes over 159 million XRP.

At this point, many investors bought Ripple tokens. As long as this level holds, the price of the altcoin may avoid a deeper drop exceeding 12%, even if the current support zone at $1.35-$1.37 is breached.

However, if XRP falls below $1.26 ($1.259 on the chart), selling pressure may increase sharply. Further important downward levels will appear near $1.162 and $1.024.

On the upside, the Ripple token must first reclaim the level of $1.439. A stronger rebound would require a move above $1.476 and $1.549. Only a breakout beyond the level of $1.670 would completely break the bearish advantage.

Currently, the altcoin remains trapped between declining support from institutions and regular buying of dips. Inflows to ETFs are still positive, but are decreasing at a fairly rapid pace.

Technical signals and on-chain data show that the level of $1.259 is now the most critical threshold that could determine the future of XRP, especially if bearish divergence and VWAP weakness persist.

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