+ Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made remarks at the Jackson Hole Conference (22/8/2025) indicating the possibility of an interest rate cut in September 2025 (meeting 16-17/9/2025) due to rising job loss risks and inflation showing signs of stabilizing.
The market has priced in a 0.25% cut at around 87% (based on CME FedWatch). This aligns with current economic data (inflation 2.6% in July 2025, GDP growth 3% in Q2) and pressure from Trump's tariff policy.
+ From now until the end of Fed Chairman Powell's term, there are 4 more interest rate announcements: September 2025, October 2025, December 2025, January 2026.
There is a likelihood of one to two more rate cuts. Each cut by 0.25%.
Each time the interest rate is cut, the market will turn green (the degree of green depends on the scale of the cut and expectations).
+ In the event that the Fed remains firm and does not cut rates in 2025, there is a high probability of a significant rate cut in March 2026 or April 2026. Since Trump has chosen a new Fed Chairman and given Trump's personality, it is always about negotiating to choose people on his side to aim for lowering interest rates.
Of course, the market also depends on many factors such as: economic data (employment, inflation), the Senate's reaction, and Trump's tariff policies...
The market has priced in a 0.25% cut at around 87% (based on CME FedWatch). This aligns with current economic data (inflation 2.6% in July 2025, GDP growth 3% in Q2) and pressure from Trump's tariff policy.
+ From now until the end of Fed Chairman Powell's term, there are 4 more interest rate announcements: September 2025, October 2025, December 2025, January 2026.
There is a likelihood of one to two more rate cuts. Each cut by 0.25%.
Each time the interest rate is cut, the market will turn green (the degree of green depends on the scale of the cut and expectations).
+ In the event that the Fed remains firm and does not cut rates in 2025, there is a high probability of a significant rate cut in March 2026 or April 2026. Since Trump has chosen a new Fed Chairman and given Trump's personality, it is always about negotiating to choose people on his side to aim for lowering interest rates.
Of course, the market also depends on many factors such as: economic data (employment, inflation), the Senate's reaction, and Trump's tariff policies...
