$IP Charlie did not enter, a friend asked, someone asked me: When the bulls and bears are in a stalemate, should we place a bet or just watch the show?\n\nI retorted: Have you ever seen smart money racing at a crossroads?\n\nThe data is speaking\n\nPrice 1.079, 24h increase 1.51%. Long to short ratio 1.3, retail investors are slightly bullish, but it's not crowded. Large holders' position ratio 0.9-1.0, smart money is waiting and not taking action.\n\nFunding rate -0.008% close to zero, both bulls and bears are unwilling to pay. The basis is negative, and the price is being suppressed by MA7 1.0929 and MA25 1.1247.\n\nThe most critical point is: Trading volume 17.39 million, open interest 16 million, volatility is extremely low—this is a typical "no one wants to make the first move" market.\n\nIn the short term, bulls and bears are in a stalemate, direction is unclear. Support 1.063, resistance 1.093. A breakout above 1.095 is needed to strengthen, while a drop below 1.06 would weaken. Entering now is a guess on the size, not an investment.\n\nIn the medium term, the outlook is bearish with fluctuations. Institutions predict a minimum of 0.92 in 2026, a drop of 14% from current levels. Fear index 12 (extreme fear), retail investors are pessimistic, and large investors are waiting. In such times, either wait or short, don’t rush into longs.\n\nExecution suggestions\nShort-term strategy\n\nWait and see. Consider after the price breaks 1.095 or drops below 1.06.\nIf it stabilizes above 1.095, take a small position long, stop loss at 1.065, targets at 1.120, 1.140.\nIf it breaks below 1.06, take a small position short, stop loss at 1.085, targets at 1.040, 1.020.\n\nMedium-term strategy\n\nWait for a weak rebound: gradually set up short positions between 1.115-1.125.\nStop loss: 1.150\nFirst target: 1.060\nSecond target: 1.020\n\nPosition suggestion: light position, strict stop loss. Those who race at the crossroads end up in the hospital.\n\nMunger's 195th rule: \nWhen things are unclear, the sidelines are the best position.\n\nPoor Richard said: \n"Experience is a valuable school, but fools learn nothing."\n\nBenjamin said: \n\nMay you—enter when the direction is clear, watch during the stalemate, and add positions during the breakout.\n\n—Charlie Munger