Friends, it is now 6:25 PM on February 20th. According to the rhythm of scheduled analysis, let's take a look at the current trend of BTC/USDT.
Continuing from the analysis of the past few hours, my overall judgment remains 'cautiously bearish'. Although there has been a continuous rebound at the hourly level and an overbought situation, the bearish trend structure at the daily level has not been broken, so I maintain the original direction and wait for a signal of rebound exhaustion.
From a technical perspective, signals across multiple timeframes are severely divergent. The daily (1D) ADX is as high as 56.7, indicating a strong bearish trend dominance (+DI 8.0/-DI 28.8), with OBV continuously flowing out by 8.1% and CMF at -0.054 showing moderate outflow, solidifying the bearish pattern. However, the 4-hour (4H) and 1-hour (1H) periods show a rebound trend: the 4H ADX is only 6.4, in a consolidation phase, but the CMF is at 0.164 showing strong inflow; the 1H ADX is 41.0 indicating a strong bullish trend, with CMF at 0.288 and OBV diverging +434.5%, showing very active short-term buying. This divergence between the daily bearish and hourly bullish trends is the core of the current market entanglement.
Cross-exchange liquidity flow analysis shows that overall network buying is dominant at 59.4%, but the distribution is uneven. Coinbase and Bitget have a relatively balanced buy/sell ratio, while Okx has a buying ratio as high as 89%, and Gate has a selling ratio of 92%. This phenomenon of flow means that a single exchange may show false divergence, and overall network data should be used as the standard. Currently, overall network liquidity is excellent, with real signals leaning towards buying, but caution is needed for the short-term impact of extreme orders from local exchanges on prices.
In terms of position risk and funding, the current price is in the middle range of multiple cycle relative positions. The market sentiment fear and greed index is only 7/100, indicating extreme fear, which is usually a noteworthy contrarian signal. The funding rate is normal, with no extreme situations. The flow of large orders shows a balance between buying and selling. In summary, the market has made a rebound at the hourly level under extreme fear sentiment, but daily funds are still flowing out, showing obvious contradictions.
Specific trading strategy-wise, given that the daily bearish trend has not changed and the hourly is severely overbought (1H RSI 77.0, MFI 71), I suggest waiting for a rebound to key resistance levels to find shorting opportunities. Consider lightly shorting in the range of 68800-69000, with a stop loss above 69500, the first target at 67900 (support level), the second target at 67200, and a fat tail target at 66500. Positioning should be controlled within 15%, as the position risk is moderate, and the risk-reward ratio barely reaches 1:3.
Finally, let's talk about the position and specific strategy. The current price is at 68176, within the key range of 67995-69023. The first support below is at 67995 (MA200), strong support at 66213 (Fibonacci 78.6%) and 66611 (pivot point S1); the first resistance above is at 69030 (pivot point R1), then 69883 (R2). If the price can break through 69030 with volume and stabilize, the hourly rebound may continue to test the 69800 area; but if it encounters resistance and falls back below 67995, it is likely to test the support area of 67000-66600 again. From a liquidity perspective, the concentration of buying is acceptable, but the bearish pressure at the daily level is real. Currently, this position is neither up nor down, not an ideal position for chasing orders, and it is better to patiently wait for the market to choose a direction before following.
Market insight is that when there are contradictions across multiple cycles, one should believe in the real flow of higher cycles and funding. A rebound caused by short-term emotional repair, if not confirmed by large-level funds and trends, is often just a breather in a downtrend. Don't let the sharp rises and falls in the market disrupt your rhythm.
【Key Positions】
Direction: Wait and see
Stop loss: To be confirmed
Support levels: 67995 / 67033 / 66213 USDT
Resistance levels: 69030 / 69883 / 70500 USDT
Take profit: To be confirmed
⚠️ The current trend strength is insufficient (although the daily ADX is high, it is a bearish trend, and the 4H ADX is only 6.4, with inconsistent directions across multiple cycles), the price is within a key range, and the direction is unclear. It is recommended to wait for a breakout confirmation before taking action.
⚠️ Risk warning: The strategy is based on algorithm analysis results and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Please make cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
This is a summary. Use invitation code FEIMAO2025 to register and obtain a wealth of auxiliary trading information for free.
[System prompt: Based on technical analysis (71.6%) and cross-exchange flow analysis, adjust the direction to bullish]
