Federal officials are once again emphasizing that inflation is somewhat sticky, the labor market is still quite strong, and we must continue with a 'data-dependent' approach, keeping high interest rates for a longer duration (higher for longer). A few doves mentioned that if inflation falls into place, there may be a few rate cuts, but overall there are no surprises. The market reaction was muted, with the three major U.S. stock indices showing slight fluctuations (Dow +0.07%, S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.08%), but this is a bearish signal for BTC and ETH — in a high interest rate environment, the cost of capital for risk assets increases, naturally leading to selling pressure. BTC fell 0.74% during the day (hitting a low of 67,251), and ETH fell 0.99% (low point 1,944). In the short term, BTC may continue to test the 67k support level, while ETH defends the 1.9k mark.
The U.S. stock market opening didn't give us a good start either; tech stocks weakened, pulling down the Nasdaq. AI concept stocks like Nvidia rebounded a bit, but overall it remains chaotic. After 19 minutes of trading, the Dow was up 49 points, the S&P down 10 points, and the Nasdaq down 107 points, with moderate trading volume. Why? The market is still digesting the aftereffects of the FOMC, and with tomorrow's Supreme Court tariff ruling hanging in the balance, everyone is hesitant to take large positions. The weakness in U.S. stocks directly links to crypto — BTC/ETH, as high beta assets, often amplify stock market fluctuations. Today, crypto followed with slight declines, leaning bearish in the short term.
Gold and commodities fared worse, with gold plummeting 2.09% (closing at $4,886/ounce), crude oil down 0.17% ($62.78/barrel), copper down 1.59%, and natural gas down 6.06%. Gold fell below the 4,900 mark, primarily due to a slight rise in the dollar (DXY +0.1%) and a weakening of safe-haven sentiment. This is a neutral to bullish signal for crypto — a drop in gold often indicates a decrease in inflation expectations, giving the Fed more room to cut rates. However, today the overall commodity market was weak (CRB index -0.2%), reflecting soft economic demand and rising risk aversion, putting short-term pressure on BTC/ETH (crypto often correlates with commodities).
Overall, today's data leans bearish, with BTC/ETH continuing to face pressure in the short term. The key is for BTC to hold at 67k and ETH at 1.9k. If the tariff ruling overturns high tariffs and inflation decreases, crypto could rebound by 3-5%; conversely, it could turn more bearish. The short-term focus should be on observation, avoiding chasing highs or cutting lows. My position? A small put, waiting for volatility. What do you think? Feel free to discuss in the comments, how will the FOMC aftershocks play out?
The U.S. stock market opening didn't give us a good start either; tech stocks weakened, pulling down the Nasdaq. AI concept stocks like Nvidia rebounded a bit, but overall it remains chaotic. After 19 minutes of trading, the Dow was up 49 points, the S&P down 10 points, and the Nasdaq down 107 points, with moderate trading volume. Why? The market is still digesting the aftereffects of the FOMC, and with tomorrow's Supreme Court tariff ruling hanging in the balance, everyone is hesitant to take large positions. The weakness in U.S. stocks directly links to crypto — BTC/ETH, as high beta assets, often amplify stock market fluctuations. Today, crypto followed with slight declines, leaning bearish in the short term.
Gold and commodities fared worse, with gold plummeting 2.09% (closing at $4,886/ounce), crude oil down 0.17% ($62.78/barrel), copper down 1.59%, and natural gas down 6.06%. Gold fell below the 4,900 mark, primarily due to a slight rise in the dollar (DXY +0.1%) and a weakening of safe-haven sentiment. This is a neutral to bullish signal for crypto — a drop in gold often indicates a decrease in inflation expectations, giving the Fed more room to cut rates. However, today the overall commodity market was weak (CRB index -0.2%), reflecting soft economic demand and rising risk aversion, putting short-term pressure on BTC/ETH (crypto often correlates with commodities).
Overall, today's data leans bearish, with BTC/ETH continuing to face pressure in the short term. The key is for BTC to hold at 67k and ETH at 1.9k. If the tariff ruling overturns high tariffs and inflation decreases, crypto could rebound by 3-5%; conversely, it could turn more bearish. The short-term focus should be on observation, avoiding chasing highs or cutting lows. My position? A small put, waiting for volatility. What do you think? Feel free to discuss in the comments, how will the FOMC aftershocks play out?
