FOMC Meeting Minutes Released: Neutral to Hawkish Signals, Analysis of Impact on Cryptocurrency Market
Release date: February 19, 2026
Hello everyone! As a cryptocurrency enthusiast, I am here to share with you the FOMC meeting minutes released last night (corresponding to the January 27-28 meeting). This minutes has a direct impact on the global financial markets, especially the cryptocurrency market. As an active trader on the Binance platform, I will conduct an objective analysis starting from the macro background, key points of the minutes, and the potential impacts on BTC and ETH. If you hold Put options or other positions, you may want to consider this. Remember, this is just a personal opinion, NFA (not financial advice), and please invest cautiously!
1. Background of the Minutes Release
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the core decision-making body of the Federal Reserve, and this minutes were released against the backdrop of maintaining interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%. The market had priced in a neutral to hawkish tone (higher for longer, maintaining high rates for a longer duration), as current inflation remains above the 2% target (CPI 2.4%), and the labor market is strong. After the release, U.S. stocks fluctuated slightly (Nasdaq -0.08%), the dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.1%, and gold fell by 2.09%. The cryptocurrency market was also under pressure, with BTC down 0.74% for the day and ETH down 0.99%.
2. Interpretation of Key Points from the Minutes
The overall tone of the minutes is neutral to hawkish, aligning with market expectations of 65-70%, but there are clear internal divergences. Here are the core points:
- Rate Path: Committee members unanimously agree to pause further rate cuts in the short term, needing more data support. Many officials emphasize that inflation is 'sticky', and the labor market is 'strong', with policy needing to be 'data-dependent', keeping high rates for a longer period. There are no clear signals supporting 3+ rate cuts, with only a few dovish members mentioning that if inflation meets expectations, there could be 'several more cuts'.
- Economic Assessment: Optimistic about economic growth, but concerned about risk balance (inflation risks vs job risks). This is the first broad discussion of the role of AI: AI may bring about a productivity boom (reducing inflation), but it also increases financial risks (such as high asset valuations and opaque private markets). This could be potentially beneficial for technology/cryptocurrency, but no market reaction has been seen in the short term.
- Divergence and Voting: Officials 'split'—some leaning towards rate hikes if inflation does not decrease, while others tend to support rate cuts if employment remains stable. The vote to maintain interest rates passed unanimously, but there were 2 votes against (leaning towards rate cuts).
Overall, the minutes did not have any 'surprises', but strengthened expectations for high interest rates, and the market response was muted (no major surprises).
3. Overall Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to Fed policies (high rates = high cost of funds, leading to significant selling pressure on risk assets). The minutes are hawkish, intensifying short-term ETF outflows ($360M last week) and selling pressure, but there are no new negatives, resulting in limited volatility.
- Short term (24-48h): Bearish. BTC/ETH may decrease slightly by 1-3% (BTC testing 67,000-68,000, ETH 1,900-1,950), due to a strong dollar + risk aversion. IV (volatility) increased slightly, and the value of options fluctuated greatly.
- Medium term (1 week): Neutral. Divergence + AI optimism may alleviate selling pressure; if there are no new macroeconomic negatives, there is a 50% probability of BTC/ETH rebounding by 2-4%. However, persistent inflation means rate cuts will be delayed, leading to a long-term bearish outlook.
- Cryptocurrency specifics: ETF outflows continue (in February, $6.78B), but institutional buying (such as MicroStrategy) provides support. The fear index is neutral, with no panic.
4. Specific Impact on BTC and ETH
- BTC: Currently ~68,810 USD, down 0.74% for the day. The hawkish stance of the minutes adds pressure to short-term selling, but the support level at 67,000 is strong, with a high probability of short-term declines of 1-3%. If it rebounds in the medium term, the target is 70,000+. Impact: Bearish (reinforcing high rates).
- ETH: Currently ~1,950 USD, down 0.99% for the day. The ETH/BTC ratio is at a low, and the minutes discuss potential benefits for technology/AI (AI boom reducing inflation), but in the short term, it is weak following BTC, with a high probability of a decline of 1-4%. A rebound of 4-8% is possible in the medium term. Impact: Neutral to bearish.
5. My Recommendations
The minutes met expectations, with no major surprises. The market is under short-term pressure but has not collapsed. If you have put option positions (BTC 66k, ETH 1.8k), this is favorable for bearish views—short-term slight declines may increase value by +10-30%, but as expiration approaches, time decay is significant, so it is recommended to lock in profits if you are in the green. In the long term, cryptocurrency needs to wait for signals of rate cuts to rebound.
What do you think on Binance Square? Welcome to discuss! If you have positions related to the FOMC, operate rationally and use spare money~ #FOMC #BTC #ETH
