The U.S. August non-farm payroll data (Nonfarm Payrolls) recorded an actual increase of only 22K, far below the market expectation of 75K and the previous value of 79K (revised). The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings growth met expectations of 0.3% MoM. This data is overall weak, indicating that the labor market cooled beyond expectations, increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September—currently, the market pricing for a 50 basis point rate cut has risen from about 30% before the non-farm data to nearly 70%. Weaker-than-expected non-farm data often benefits risk assets as it reinforces expectations for loose monetary policy, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

ETH price showed significant volatility before and after the non-farm release: it closed at about $4,450 before the release (September 4) and quickly dipped to around $4,299 afterwards, but then rebounded, currently priced at about $4,328, with a 24-hour increase of 0.7%. This reflects initial market panic (selling pressure causing short-term decline), but quickly turned optimistic—weak data boosted rate cut expectations, and ETH rebounded in sync with BTC, recovering some losses. Overall, ETH's fluctuation after the non-farm data was about -3% to +1%, representing a mild response, partly due to institutional inflows (such as whales injecting $4.3B for staking) and rising DeFi adoption rates.

Short-term (1-2 weeks): Bullish rebound, but high volatility. Weak non-farm data strengthened the Federal Reserve's easing path, and ETH may test upward resistance at $4,480-$4,500. If broken, it could further challenge $4,600, even a short-term target of $4,800. Support levels are at $4,250-$4,300; if breached, it may retract to $4,100, but current staking demand has surged by 18% and institutional interest provides a buffer. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve meeting (September 17-18) and next week's CPI data; if inflation further slows, bullish momentum will be amplified.

Mid-term (1-3 months): Optimistic, price phase may enter the $4,500-$5,000 range. In a rate cut cycle, ETH benefits as a smart contract platform from DeFi and Layer2 growth, with analysts generally expecting it to reach $5,000-$8,000 before the end of 2025. However, risks include amplified signals of a global economic recession (if next month's non-farm data remains weak) or geopolitical factors leading to heightened risk aversion. Overall, weak non-farm data acts as a catalyst for ETH; it is advised to monitor whale movements and real-time discussions on platform X.

Long-term (2025-2026): Potential upside to $7,500-$10,000, driven by Ethereum upgrades (such as reduced gas fees after Dencun) and institutional adoption.