$RIVER Someone says it will go back to 0.x is alarmist.

Let me tell you what real risk is:

The top 10 addresses hold 90% of the circulating supply. This is not decentralization; this is a few people locking their chips in a safe, waiting for you to gather enough money to buy.

The contract trading volume is 80 times that of spot, and the funding rate is negative, cutting you by 2% every hour. This is not a market; this is a meat grinder—bulls are collecting rent, bears are bleeding, and the market makers are watching the show in the middle.

Munger's Rule 66: When chips are concentrated in a few hands, the price is not determined by the market; it is determined by them.

In one month, it went from 2 to 86, a 40-fold increase. Then it quickly crashed back down. This is not value discovery; this is the market maker giving out red envelopes—after giving them out, they still have to take them back.

In the next 5 months, a large amount will be unlocked, and the FDV once approached 10 billion. You do the math; is the current price enough to support those waiting to sell?

I'm not saying it will definitely go to zero. I'm saying: going to 0.x is not alarmist; it's mathematics.

——Charlie Munger