As of now (September 4, 2025), the cryptocurrency bull market has not yet ended, but it has entered a critical window period, with market divergence existing; comprehensive judgment needs to be made based on real-time data and risk signals.

1. Mainstream viewpoints diverge: The bull market may continue until the end of the year, or it may have already entered its final phase.

  1. Optimist:

    • On-chain data support: The market value of stablecoins has maintained a monthly growth rate of 4.7%, indicating that funds are still flowing in; Ethereum Layer 2 project financing has increased by 32% month-on-month, and technological innovation continues.

    • Market sentiment indicator: Retail investors are returning, Bitcoin trading volume has reached an all-time high, the market is in a 'euphoric phase' (the third phase of a bull market), and speculators have not yet flooded in on a large scale.

    • Time window forecast: Some analysts believe the bull market may extend until the end of 2025 or even the first quarter of 2026, especially if the Federal Reserve relaxes monetary policy after September.

  2. Conservatives:

    • Historical pattern extrapolation: The peak of the bull market usually occurs 4-6 months after Bitcoin's halving (halving in April 2024, with May-October 2025 being the key window).

    • Capital flow signals: Miners' holdings have dropped to a new low since 2020, and selling pressure from production has weakened; however, institutions and whales have started taking profits, with signs of withdrawal waves from exchanges emerging.

    • Technical pressure: If Bitcoin breaks below key support levels (such as the 200-week moving average) or experiences a 'death cross,' it may trigger a pullback.

2. Core signs of the end of the bull market: Currently not fully manifested, but caution is needed

  1. Price and trading volume:

    • Bitcoin has not yet shown a sharp correction after being unable to break through high levels for a long time, but trading volume has decreased compared to the previous month (e.g., a decrease of 18% in May), which needs to be continuously observed.

    • The phenomenon of altcoins skyrocketing and then crashing has not yet occurred on a large scale, but some high-risk projects have shown signs of weakness.

  2. Market sentiment and capital flow:

    • Market sentiment remains predominantly optimistic, but we need to be wary of the increasing extreme statements of 'this time is different,' which may signal a short-term top.

    • The signs of funds shifting from high-risk altcoins to mainstream coins like Bitcoin are not obvious, but changes in institutional holdings need close monitoring.

  3. Regulation and macroeconomics:

    • No significant tightening of global regulatory policies has been observed, but the results of the second phase review of Singapore's Monetary Authority (MAS) blockchain sandbox in September may affect market confidence.

    • The Federal Reserve's monetary policy statements (such as the June interest rate meeting) and changes in inflation and interest rates are key external variables.

3. Investor strategy suggestions

  1. Position control:

    • It is recommended to control positions within the range of 30%-50%, allocate some gold ETFs and US Treasury reverse repos (ON RRP) as a hedge, and avoid full position operations.

  2. Focus on key signals:

    • Bitcoin futures funding rate: Be cautious if it remains below 0.03% for three consecutive days;

    • On-chain data: Such as reduced net outflows from exchanges and increased concentration of holdings;

    • Market news: Policy regulations tightening or significant technical vulnerabilities.

  3. Diversified investment:

    • Gradually reduce the proportion of cryptocurrency in the late stages of the bull market, shifting towards stablecoins or traditional assets to avoid risks from a single asset.

  4. Long-term perspective:

    • After the end of the bull market, it may enter a bear market or sideways market, requiring patience to wait for the next cycle opportunity.

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