If SVB fails, it would be the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and the largest since 2008, with a further 24% drop before the market

A brief timeline of what happened at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and whether there will be more contagion:

  • SVB’s deposits exploded during the 2020 bubble, growing from $62 billion at the end of 2019 to $189 billion at the end of 2021.

  • Due to 0% short-term interest rates, these companies made long-term investments (10+ years) as they could not generate the necessary deposit yields.

  • As the bond bubble burst, marking the worst bond performance in more than 100 years, they faced huge unrealized losses.

  • Those unrealized losses turned into $1.8 billion in realized losses, requiring the raising of another $2.25 billion in equity and debt.

  • A bank run begins when account holders cash out balances above $250,000 (FDIC insurance threshold)

  • Credit agencies have downgraded SVB’s ratings.

  • The pressure has now spread to all U.S. banks, which have seen more than $80 billion in market value evaporate.

  • As a result, SVIB fell 60% on March 9 and fell a further 24% pre-market.

  • As SVB's CEO scrambles to appease customers, where have we been before?