The recent XRP price is struggling to recover, with increasing concerns about a return to the bear market of 2021-2022.
While the downtrend continues, new developments surrounding Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse could change sentiment.
XRP may not replicate past performance.
CEO Brad Garlinghouse has joined the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee. This appointment is a significant milestone for Ripple and the XRP ecosystem. The regulatory environment that has plagued Ripple for nearly five years is now seeking industry input.
For XRP supporters, this is a sign that regulatory normalization is progressing. Engagement with the CFTC could enhance Ripple's credibility in U.S. policy discussions. If constructive dialogue continues, there may also be an expectation of alleviating the long-term legal risks that have pressured XRP prices so far.
Recent realized profit and loss data shows a sharp increase in selling. Some voices suggest it resembles the signs just before the bear market in 2022. However, in 2022, the distribution lasted for about four months. This time, the selling lacks sustainability and scale, and the long-term downside risk for XRP is limited.
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According to exchange balance data, selling pressure is being suppressed. Approximately 100 million XRP has moved to exchanges over the past 10 days, amounting to 130 million dollars. It is a noteworthy movement, but there is no panic selling spreading.
In November 2025, 130 million XRP were sold within 72 hours. At that time, holders had a strong sense of crisis. The current selling flow is controlled and has not become excessive.
If gentle selling and positive developments in regulation come together, stabilization of sentiment can be expected. If selling accelerates, XRP may absorb supply and avoid a price plunge. Market participants are monitoring this trend through on-chain indicators.
XRP, room for recovery
According to the liquidation heat map, there are limited barriers to immediate recovery. The next major resistance XRP will face is between $1.78 and $1.80. This zone is a benchmark for profit-taking selling and is not a structural ceiling that cannot be breached soon.
There are no densely packed liquidation clusters below the current level, so the short-term risk of a cascading drop is also low. If momentum increases, XRP has room to rise until it faces significant selling pressure. This technical flexibility allows for a cautious yet positive outlook.
XRP is trading at $1.35 and is moving below the support level of $1.36. The next important support is around $1.27, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Recently weak, but overall maintains a balanced risk profile.
CEO Garlinghouse's appointment at the CFTC may contribute to improved investor confidence. If XRP can recover to $1.51, a rebound rise could be possible. If that level can be maintained, an increase to the supply zone above $1.76 is expected.
However, if it falls below $1.27, the momentum will significantly shift. Losing support could intensify panic selling. If it drops to $1.11, the bullish scenario will be invalidated, and the adjustment phase may prolong.
