September Interest Rate Cut Probability Prediction
Current market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve has a probability of over 93% for an interest rate cut in September (CME 'FedWatch' tool data), which has almost become a certainty.
Expected Cut Amount: 25 Basis Points
Federal Reserve Governor Waller (statement on August 29) clearly supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September, emphasizing that 'there is no need to exceed this amount.'
Mainstream institutions such as Nomura Securities, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs all predict a 25 basis point cut, believing that a 50 basis point cut is 'unlikely.'
If the non-farm payroll data on September 5 or the CPI data on the 11th unexpectedly worsens, it could trigger a 50 basis point cut (current probability is only about 7%).
Current market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve has a probability of over 93% for an interest rate cut in September (CME 'FedWatch' tool data), which has almost become a certainty.
Expected Cut Amount: 25 Basis Points
Federal Reserve Governor Waller (statement on August 29) clearly supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September, emphasizing that 'there is no need to exceed this amount.'
Mainstream institutions such as Nomura Securities, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs all predict a 25 basis point cut, believing that a 50 basis point cut is 'unlikely.'
If the non-farm payroll data on September 5 or the CPI data on the 11th unexpectedly worsens, it could trigger a 50 basis point cut (current probability is only about 7%).