Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou Team Statement: The market is undergoing a structural shift from 'retail/treasury-driven' to 'institution-led'.
Market Status and Correction: In February 2026, the total market value of digital assets has retreated from its peak to $2.3 trillion, a decrease of approximately 25% compared to last month. Despite the recent sluggish market, JPMorgan continues to maintain a bullish stance for the entire year of 2026.
Institutional Inflows Become New Momentum: * Driving Force Replacement: JPMorgan notes that the record inflow of $130 billion in 2025 was primarily driven by ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies. However, entering 2026, with key regulatory bills like the CLARITY Act advancing in Washington, compliant institutional funds (venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, IPOs) will become the main growth driver.
DAT Model Cooling: The report observed that since October 2025, treasury companies like Strategy (MSTR), which have massively bought BTC as reserves, have significantly slowed their purchasing pace.
Bitcoin's Price 'Anchor': * Production Cost Estimate: JPMorgan currently estimates the **production cost of Bitcoin (Production Cost)** to be $77,000 per coin.
Self-Correcting Mechanism: When the BTC price falls below this line, it triggers a 'negative feedback loop' for miners. While some miners will clear their machines, this also leads to a decrease in hashrate, thereby reducing the production cost for the remaining miners, ultimately forming a new market equilibrium bottom around $77,000.
Risk Assessment: Although optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential relative to gold, analysts warn that in the short term, if institutional funds fail to timely fill the gaps, the market will still need to undergo a period of 'painful deleveraging'.
