The U.S. jobs report (payroll), released this Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, brought numbers above expectations: the creation of 130,000 jobs in January (against a consensus of around 55–65 thousand), with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. The data signals a still resilient labor market, despite downward revisions in the 2025 numbers (which show much lower job creation than initially reported).
The result alleviated immediate fears of recession, but also reduced bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the short term — which puts pressure on global risk assets. Futures for American stocks are mixed, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 erasing part of the year's gains amid technology sales and risk aversion.
Impact on $BTC Bitcoin and crypto
Bitcoin ($BTC ) widened losses and is trading around US$ 66,500–67,500 (about R$ 345–350k), down 1.5–2.5% on the day and over 20% in this "bloody February" so far. After reaching an all-time high above US$ 126k in October 2025, the asset has given back almost half its value in a technical and macro correction:
Cascade liquidations surpassed US$ 250 million in the recent 24 hours
Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and a reduction in global liquidity (influenced by monetary tightening in several countries and Basel III)
Negative correlation with tech stocks and a flight to safe havens like gold (above US$ 5,000/ounce)
Analysts point out that BTC acts as a "risk aversion thermometer": factors like geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflation, and lower global cheap liquidity weigh more than the positive payroll.
In Brazil: Ibovespa ignores external tides and sets a new record
Contrary to global caution, Ibovespa surged over 2% today, surpassing 190k points for the first time — accumulating a rise of about 18% in 2026 (and over 24% in dollars). The positive currency flow (US$ 4.8 billion until 6/02) and the Brazil-U.S. interest rate differential (high Selic vs. more cautious Fed) attract foreign capital. The real benefits from a globally weaker dollar.
