1️⃣ Overall market pattern
• Bitcoin (BTC):
Currently still in the large-scale fluctuation range of 110,000–120,000 USD, which belongs to a clear accumulation and turnover stage. The trading volume is insufficient, but the bottom support is gradually rising, indicating that the main force is not unloading but using sideways movements to repeatedly shake off floating positions.
➤ Trend characteristics: large ups and downs, but the overall trend is upward. The main force is using volatility to wash out retail investors' patience.
• Ethereum (ETH):
Recently, the strength has surpassed BTC, and the ETH/BTC ratio is continuously strengthening, indicating that funds and sentiment are flowing into ETH and the altcoin sector. Especially the strong rebound of ETH verifies that the altcoin season rhythm has already started.
• Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D):
Continuously declining, currently around 56%, indicating that some funds are flowing out of BTC into ETH and quality altcoins. This is an important signal in the early stage of the altcoin market.
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2️⃣ Funding and macro factors
• Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations:
The interest rate cut in September has basically become market consensus, with a cut of 25–50 basis points likely. This is a super bullish signal that will attract more funds into high-risk assets (including the crypto market).
• Market funds flowing out:
Recently, signs of funds entering platform coins and stablecoins have begun to appear, which is usually one of the indicators that the altcoin season is approaching.
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3️⃣ Current stage
Combining the above signals:
✅ BTC is consolidating, which is a healthy washout.
✅ ETH has outperformed BTC, boosting market risk appetite.
✅ BTC.D is declining, indicating that funds are gradually flowing out.
✅ Macroeconomic (interest rate cut expectations) continues to strengthen.
→ Currently, the market is in the early stage of the altcoin season, but it has not yet reached a fully crazy phase. Mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOT, FIL, etc.) are performing first, and this will gradually spread to small and medium-cap segments.
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4️⃣ Subsequent trend prediction
• Short-term (before September):
It is highly likely to remain volatile; BTC will not surge immediately but will maintain in the 110,000–120,000 range, boiling the frog in warm water. ETH and some leading altcoins will continue to strengthen.
• Mid-term (September–October):
Once the interest rate cut is confirmed, market sentiment will be thoroughly ignited. BTC is expected to break through 120,000, with ETH leading, and altcoins will welcome localized euphoria.
• Operational suggestions:
• BTC: suitable for medium to long-term holding; frequent trading is not recommended.
• ETH: currently relatively strong; can be focused on.
• Altcoins: focus on leaders and those with narrative support (such as AI, platform coins, Web3, and storage projects).
• Avoid blindly chasing prices, gradually build positions at low levels, and hold to wait for market outbreaks.
