we talk about BTC at 38 thousand ??? I have been out since 88
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lxlap
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The market is not moving as expected
These past few days, I've seen a lot of brothers starting to view $BTC dropping back to the 3x range.
It sounds reasonable… but honestly, this story has repeated itself many times already.
Let me tell you an old story so it's easier to picture.
In the previous cycle, when BTC was falling, the majority were all waiting for it to recover to 100k to exit.
Everyone was dead certain:
“It has to reach 100k, then I’ll sell.”
But what actually happened?
BTC only recovered to around 97k and then broke down completely.
Only a small group of brothers who closely followed price action, who didn’t stubbornly cling to one beautiful round number, were able to exit their positions.
Back to the present.
I’m not saying BTC can’t go back to 3x.
But from my personal point of view, if there is a deep drop, the area around 5x would already be very solid for the market to show a strong reaction.
The market has no obligation to move in the direction the majority is hoping for.
On the contrary, it usually moves in the way that makes most people lose patience and give up.
What I want brothers to take away is not:
“BTC is definitely going to X amount.”
But rather:
Don’t try to guess the exact bottom
Don’t die because of one number in your head
Watch what price is actually doing, not what other people are saying
The people who survive long in this market
are not the ones who guess the best,
but the ones who know how to follow price and protect their capital.
I will continue to update my view when the market structure changes.
But at this moment, for me:
Slow down a bit – observe carefully – holding cash is better than rushing in to catch the bottom.
That’s it.
==
I only share the general view publicly,
the deeper study part I keep in .
These past few days, I've seen a lot of brothers starting to view $BTC dropping back to the 3x range.
It sounds reasonable… but honestly, this story has repeated itself many times already.
Let me tell you an old story so it's easier to picture.
In the previous cycle, when BTC was falling, the majority were all waiting for it to recover to 100k to exit.
Everyone was dead certain:
“It has to reach 100k, then I’ll sell.”
But what actually happened?
BTC only recovered to around 97k and then broke down completely.
Only a small group of brothers who closely followed price action, who didn’t stubbornly cling to one beautiful round number, were able to exit their positions.
Back to the present.
I’m not saying BTC can’t go back to 3x.
But from my personal point of view, if there is a deep drop, the area around 5x would already be very solid for the market to show a strong reaction.
The market has no obligation to move in the direction the majority is hoping for.
On the contrary, it usually moves in the way that makes most people lose patience and give up.
What I want brothers to take away is not:
“BTC is definitely going to X amount.”
But rather:
Don’t try to guess the exact bottom
Don’t die because of one number in your head
Watch what price is actually doing, not what other people are saying
The people who survive long in this market
are not the ones who guess the best,
but the ones who know how to follow price and protect their capital.
I will continue to update my view when the market structure changes.
But at this moment, for me:
Slow down a bit – observe carefully – holding cash is better than rushing in to catch the bottom.
That’s it.
==
I only share the general view publicly,
the deeper study part I keep in .
