Solana has been under strong pressure in recent sessions, retreating to levels not seen in nearly two years. The sharp decline occurred after a broader market weakness, pushing SOL well below previous support zones.
Despite the decline, initial signs of stabilization are beginning to emerge. Previous patterns suggest that Solana may be preparing for a recovery, which could eventually bring the price back to the US$ 100 range and possibly beyond that level.
Solana has faced similar conditions before.
On-chain valuation metrics indicate that Solana is deeply undervalued. The ratio of market value to realized value has dropped to the lowest level recorded in the last two and a half years. This data suggests that the market value of SOL is significantly below the average cost of coins in circulation, reflecting unrealized losses among a large part of investors.
Historically, this scenario represents final phases of correction, not initial stages of selling. When realized value exceeds market value by such a proportion, selling pressure usually decreases. Investors begin to avoid exiting at a loss, creating an environment conducive to stabilization. This imbalance supports the perspective that SOL is trading below its fair value.
Profitability data reinforces this view. Only 21.9% of Solana addresses are currently in profit, meaning about 78.1% of investors are at a loss. This level of stress often marks market bottoms, as lower values attract participants focused on opportunities.
In previous cycles, when profitability fell close to or below 20%, significant recoveries occurred. Lower profit-taking limits supply, while low prices drive accumulation. If history repeats itself, Solana may see renewed interest as investors seek recovery after being heavily discounted.
Recovery of SOL's price depends on breaking through this level.
At the time of this report, Solana is priced around US$ 86, positioning itself above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level is often referred to as support in a bear market. As long as SOL remains above this point, the risk of a decline is more controlled, increasing the chances of a technical rebound.
The current stabilization suggests that SOL may be forming a bottom. Any potential recovery should depend on improvements in capital flows. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows an increase, although still in negative territory. This change signals that outflows are decreasing, an initial sign of relief in selling pressure.
A consistent move above US$ 90 would place Solana on a recovery trajectory towards US$ 100. Confirmation would come if the price exceeds the 61.8% Fibonacci level, near US$ 105, turning it into support. However, if positive flows do not materialize, the process could be reversed. A drop below US$ 81 could open the door for new losses, with SOL potentially reaching US$ 75 or even US$ 70.
The article Solana hits lowest level in 2 years, and history indicates possible recovery to US$ 100 was first seen in BeInCrypto Brasil.
