If you are wondering whether Bitcoin is expensive or already "on sale" – there is one indicator that has been working like a clock since 2013. It's called **Realized Price**.
What does this mean in simple terms?
Imagine that every Bitcoin has a "tag" with the price at which it was last bought/sold/moved to a wallet. Realized Price is simply **the average price of all these tags** for all BTC in the network.
- When the current price is **above** this line → most people are in profit → the market is "happy".
- When the price falls **below** the line → most are at a loss → historically THESE have been the best times to buy long-term!
What happened in past cycles?
- 2014–2015: The price falls below realized price → then + thousands of percent up.
- 2018–2019: Again below the line → then a boom to $69k.
- 2022: Below the line → then a new record in 2025.
Now (February 2026):
Realized Price is around **$55,000 – $56,000** (according to Glassnode data from the last few days).
Bitcoin is around **$69,000 – $70,000** (after falling to ~$60k last week).
It is still NOT below the line, but approaching quickly! If it falls below $55k – this is the classic "buy zone" from history. Many analysts say: start **DCA-ing** (buying little by little every month/week), instead of waiting for the perfect bottom.
Important:
This is NOT a 100% guarantee, the market can surprise. It can drag on for years in this range, but this indicator is one of the cleanest for long-term investors – it has almost never misled when the price has been below it for a long time.
What do you think? Will it fall more or will it bounce back? Write in the comments! 👇
This is not financial advice
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Investing #RealizedPrice
