$ADA is in a precarious situation. After dropping out of the Top 10 replaced by BCH and decreasing by 10.7% in a week, this coin is threatening to breach the $0.25 mark. However, the real warning bell is ringing from the derivatives market.
🔹 Fragmented OI
In 2023, Binance held up to 80% of the total Open Interest (OI) of Cardano, driving strong price increases. By 2026, this figure had collapsed to only 22%.
High OI concentration on Binance is often a driver for volatility and upward momentum of Altcoin (similar to Solana's run up to $200 with a 52% market share). The current fragmentation signals the loss of speculative money and weakened momentum.
🔸 The Migration of Whales Trust is Being Tested
Most holder groups have sold off since November. The only buying force comes from the shrimp group (<100 ADA) and the 1M-10M group.
Unlike the end of 2024 when whales accumulated widely pushing the price from $0.36 to $1.23, the current context shows that big players are leaving.
🔹 Triple discount: Weak Sentiment + Smart Money Exiting + Fragmented OI.
Weak Structure / Multi-Year Bottom.
With Bitcoin under $70k and ADA losing its derivative position on Binance, the path of least resistance is downward. Unless OI focuses again, recovery attempts are likely to be short-lived.
Dominance on Binance has disappeared, and ADA is losing key support at $0.25. Are you catching a falling knife, or waiting for the dust to settle?
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