$BTC has adjusted nearly 40–50% from the peak $126,000 to the region $69,000, triggering extreme fear. While retail is panic selling, data shows we are entering a critical capitulation phase.
🔹 The Distress of Short-Term Holders
The realized price of short-term holders is hovering around $92,000 – $92,500. With BTC at ~$69,000, recent buyers are deeply underwater.
STH-MVRV has slipped to 0.75–0.78. Historically, regions below 1.0 often mark significant capitulation events, where weak hands finally have to leave the game, allowing the market to form a bottom.
🔸 Whales & Retail
While retail attempts to catch the bottom, whales are minimizing risk. The Whale & Retail Delta index has surged above 0.8, indicating that major players are closing long positions and opening short positions for hedging.
The 90-day net position change has shifted to a deep negative of -1.5 million to -2 million BTC. Without new cash flow, the upward momentum will lack structural support.
🔹 A final sweep?
The Final Capitulation Phase / Bottom Formation.
The market is stabilizing, but whale caution suggests a final liquidity sweep down. Recovery depends on MVRV reclaiming the 1.0 mark and prices surpassing the capital level of $92k. Until then, cash is king and patience is the strategy.
STH is stuck at $92k and whales are hedging. Do you have the courage to accumulate at $69k, or wait for the final dump?
News and research information from Trading Insight is for reference only and not investment advice. Please read carefully before making any decisions.
