#BTC – What comes next?

Big Weekly Report: Everything We Need to Know

🚩 Technical Analysis / Linear Retracement / Psychological Analysis: Psychological Analysis

In last week's weekly report, I clearly pointed out that a new range was forming when Bitcoin was at 78k. I expect Bitcoin to trade sideways between 57k and 87k, with a volatility range of 33%, as previously stated. This sideways phase does not indicate a bullish sentiment, but rather prepares for the upcoming months. I anticipate a downward wave following this phase, with targets pointing towards lower levels in the 44-50k area in the coming weeks or months as the box breaks.

A year ago, in 2024, Bitcoin fluctuated within a range of 58k to 74k. At that time, I explained the three main functions of this range multiple times. Most importantly, it drew reference lines for future bear markets. I repeatedly stated that this range in 2024 would play a key role in the bear market of 2026, in a similar position. This is exactly the case. Bitcoin is currently in a region where it consolidated for a whole year before breaking upward towards 100k. In a bear market environment, this area is not support, but structure, and structures eventually break. Once the sideways phase ends, I expect a breakdown of the range.

Current plan and range logic

I expect Bitcoin to move significantly sideways between 57k and 87k. My clear intention is to buy between 57k and 60k, which is the current bottom of the range. It must be understood that the bottom of the range does not mean the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin, but just the bottom of the current phase. I bought in the 57k–60k range with the goal of achieving percentage profits, not for long-term holding. For example, Bitcoin has risen about 16% from the 60k buy point I shared a few days ago.

Does this mean 87k is a guaranteed target? No. This only represents two things. First, Bitcoin is in a recovery and rebound phase between 57k and 60k, usually accompanied by sideways movement. Second, I expect Bitcoin's maximum level during this phase to be around 87k, depending on the strength and duration of the market's sideways movement. If the market allows entry into the 87k range, I am willing to increase the additional short positions I already hold, which were opened between 115k and 125k, and are still fully held.

Positioning and execution strategy

Some people like to complicate things. For me, it's actually quite simple. I hold short positions from 115k–125k. Meanwhile, I have set multiple spot buy orders between 57k and 60k. Some orders were triggered close to 60k, realizing about 16% profit. I plan to hold these profits because I expect the sideways movement to continue for a period, with no significant downside potential in the coming weeks. I believe 57k–60k is a local bottom, not a macro bottom, and I expect it to be tested multiple times. This is also why I bought in this range. There is no reason to sell when the market has no upward potential. When the time comes to sell, I will mention whether I have sold or am planning to sell. Bitcoin will continue to move sideways until it no longer does. The largest and most aggressive long bets will re-enter at lower levels—around the 50k level, as well as entering the 40s. I will reposition significantly there while cashing out the shorts from 115k–125k, as I believe Bitcoin will eventually bottom in this area. It is expected to reach this bottom range around September to October, as my calculations indicate. Meanwhile? As mentioned, the market is just a long and tedious sideways movement.

Why am I buying now in a bear market?

Someone asked me, since I expect Bitcoin to bottom around 54k–44k, why buy now? The answer is simple: the market won't always move in one direction. Even in a bear market, there will be strong counter-trend rebounds. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped from 68k to 33k with almost no pause. Then, within two months, it rebounded from 33k to 48.5k, a 50% increase, before continuing to fall, eventually bottoming at 16k. This is how the market works.

We are in a bear market. The rebound is only temporary, meant to accumulate liquidity for further declines. My ultimate bear market target remains below 50k, around the 40k area. That will be my most significant entry point. Before that, my shorts between 115k and 125k are still fully open. I am not using leverage to go long; I bought spot between 57k and 60k while maintaining short positions.