$BTC From the weekly chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) you provided, it indeed aligns very well with the classic Elliott Wave Theory pattern.
In the chart, you have clearly marked the upward 5 waves (1-2-3-4-5) and the subsequent downward ABC waves. Let's delve deeper into this pattern and analyze several possibilities for the future market.
1. Pattern Confirmation: A complete '8-wave cycle' has ended
According to wave theory, a complete market cycle consists of 8 waves: 5 impulsive waves (upward) + 3 corrective waves (downward).
- Impulsive Waves (1-5): Wave 1 in the chart starts, Wave 2 pulls back, Wave 3 rises, Wave 4 consolidates, and Wave 5 peaks (reaching around $109,000), forming the main upward phase of the bull market.
- Adjusting Waves (A-B-C): After the 5th wave peaks, an ABC correction begins. In your chart, wave A declines, wave B rebounds (it hasn't reached a new high, which is normal), and wave C again plunges deeply (falling to around $63,770).
Conclusion: The wave C in your chart has now completed, and this large '8-wave cycle' has reached a period on the weekly level.
2. Market Trend Projection: The start of a new bull market cycle
When an 8-wave cycle ends, the market typically starts a new, larger wave cycle. The current position of $70,629 is highly likely to be the starting point for a new bull market (major 3rd wave or new 1st wave).
The following is a specific projection for the market:
Stage One: Bottom Formation and Confirmation (current)
- Current Situation: The RSI indicator is in the oversold zone of 18.05, which is an excellent buy signal area.
- Trend: The stock price has gained support and rebounded at $63,770 (the low point of wave C), currently oscillating around $70,000.
- Key Point: As long as it does not fall below the previous low of $63,770, this bottom is valid.
Stage Two: New upward 1st wave (high probability direction)
- Formation: Since it is the end of a large cycle, it is highly likely that a new upward 1st wave will emerge next.
- Target: This round of rebound will first challenge the previous high ($109,000) and may even break it.
- Characteristic: This wave is usually steady and tentative, not as fierce as the 3rd wave.
Stage Three: Future 3rd wave main rise (explosion period)
- If confirmation enters a new cycle, then after a period of 1st wave rise and 2nd wave correction, the market will face the most intense 3rd wave main rise.
- Expectation: Prices will significantly exceed the previous high of $109,000, creating a new historical high.
3. Technical Indicator Verification
- MACD: Currently, both DIF and DEA are still below the 0 axis, but the MACD histogram (green bars) is shortening, and the DIF line shows signs of turning upward. Once a golden cross forms, it is a strong buy signal.
- RSI: The value of 18.05 indicates extreme market fear, a typical 'golden pit' area.
- Trading Volume: The recent decline in trading volume has not shown abnormal expansion (no panic selling), indicating that the main funds have not fully fled, and it looks more like a washout.
4. Operational Suggestions
1. Current Position ($70,629): In a relatively safe area. If this is the endpoint of the major wave C, then now is the 'diamond bottom.'
2. Stop-Loss Level: $63,770 (the lowest point of wave C in the chart). If it falls below this price, it indicates that wave C is extended or the major trend is turning bearish, and you need to exit.
3. Target Level:
- First Target: $85,000 - $90,000 (previous platform resistance level).
- Ultimate Target: Above $120,000 (new cycle historical high).
Summary:
The trend in your chart is very perfect; the 5 waves + ABC adjustment has been completed. It is currently at a critical moment for a major cycle bottom reversal, with a high probability of a bullish outlook, likely to initiate a new bull market journey.