BTC
1. The open interest of unclosed contracts has decreased, leverage has gone through a washout, and the market has become light, with a technical rebound demand present.
2. The overall trend is still downward, with a large-scale outflow from ETFs, totaling $2.9 billion over 12 trading days.
3. IV is lower than RV, indicating a potential short-term collapse, and the market is not pricing in a long-term price decline.
Core conclusion
—— In the short to medium term (1-2 weeks), the focus is on defense, with expectations of significant volatility.
—— Long-term declines may not be too different from current levels.
—— Based on market conditions, there is a lack of a conclusion summarizing the current market collapse, specifically what has caused the collapse and whether there are unknown reasons behind it.
1. The open interest of unclosed contracts has decreased, leverage has gone through a washout, and the market has become light, with a technical rebound demand present.
2. The overall trend is still downward, with a large-scale outflow from ETFs, totaling $2.9 billion over 12 trading days.
3. IV is lower than RV, indicating a potential short-term collapse, and the market is not pricing in a long-term price decline.
Core conclusion
—— In the short to medium term (1-2 weeks), the focus is on defense, with expectations of significant volatility.
—— Long-term declines may not be too different from current levels.
—— Based on market conditions, there is a lack of a conclusion summarizing the current market collapse, specifically what has caused the collapse and whether there are unknown reasons behind it.
