BTC

1. The open interest of unclosed contracts has decreased, leverage has gone through a washout, and the market has become light, with a technical rebound demand present.

2. The overall trend is still downward, with a large-scale outflow from ETFs, totaling $2.9 billion over 12 trading days.

3. IV is lower than RV, indicating a potential short-term collapse, and the market is not pricing in a long-term price decline.

Core conclusion

—— In the short to medium term (1-2 weeks), the focus is on defense, with expectations of significant volatility.
—— Long-term declines may not be too different from current levels.
—— Based on market conditions, there is a lack of a conclusion summarizing the current market collapse, specifically what has caused the collapse and whether there are unknown reasons behind it.