Leading copycat investments include $BLUR, $gmx, $LDO, and $OP. The short-term rise and fall of currency prices mainly depends on speculative sentiment, which is also the basis for the survival of the currency circle. In the long term, it mainly depends on intrinsic value, economic model and community consensus. There is a big difference between making short-term and long-term money, and sometimes getting it wrong can be costly. My $BLUR currently has about 7 million actual losses plus floating losses. The losses come from the same source, so I’m not afraid if I have logic. share.

investment logic

First of all, short-term rises and falls depend on speculation, which is the FOMO or fear of most ignorant retail investors.

Just like among the people who read my tweets, there may be very few people who are willing to look at the logic itself. They want to make "easy and quick money", so they only look at keywords and hope to buy them and leave them after a huge increase - but People who think this way are still far from making money in the long run. Because I don’t have my own research, even if I wrote an article about Mavericks and LSD in early January, you wouldn’t dare enter. As a result, you will miss the best wave of random buying and doubling of the market, so you will not notice the difference between other people's positions and funds at all, and just want to play hard and make a comeback - but this is different from opening a contract. There is no difference in waiting for liquidation.

What is logic? You must know why you are buying, is it speculative sentiment or is there long-term support? For example, now everyone would think $GMX is better than $BLUR, but 3 months ago?

GMX

$GMX was listed on Binance at 66, and then dropped all the way to 32. After a small rebound, there was a flash crash to 26, a drop of 66%. Nowadays, many people are talking about it, and they are still rushing to buy it when they are 80 years old. The currency is still the same currency - and it has the best economic model in the currency circle: holding the currency directly pays dividends, the platform has strong earning power, and the team is strong. But when it drops to 26, fewer people dare to buy it, and fewer people dare to be optimistic about it - but those are the ones who make money.

lDO

$ldo, which is also the leader on the track, went up to 3.9 and fell to 0.385, a drop of 90.13%, which took only 53 days.

Note: This token currently only has a governance function, that is, pure air - but when the token starts to rise, we can often see various valuations, various calculations, and various profit margins.

In fact, for the most accurate thinking model, just read what I wrote about BLUR - it is more useful than most things and is the password to wealth.

ON

Let’s look at L2’s leader $OP. It has a lot of airdrops and huge selling pressure, which is much bigger than $BLUR. When the airdrop was distributed, the whole network was scolded because Witch Check had tampered with the cake of the Mao Mao Party. In 42 days, it dropped from 2.2 to 0.4, a drop of 82%. After a sharp rise, it took 20 days to break the previous high. These currencies are still the same. Once they rise, no one cares about selling pressure, inflation, or bad news. But as long as it falls, you can make two gestures whether it will happen or not.

Have you learned anything from it? If you follow the leeks in the group to make money from the second level, then their performance will 100% be like this:

When it goes down, you can find 10,000 reasons, and it is rubbish; when it goes up, you can find 10,000 reasons, and you can still hit new highs.

My Telegram group has 16,000 people, and it basically follows this rhythm every day. If it rises a little, it will rise another 10 times, and if it falls a little, it will return to zero. Look at a few more coins.

$MAGIC Web3 version of Nintendo

In fact, I haven't done much research, especially about the economic model of tokens, and I don't know much about other people's holding costs, but I bought it without researching it thoroughly. Although I lost a lot when I exchanged it for BLUR, $MAGIC also lost half of its value. Maybe, MAGIC coins are good, but I don’t know how much empowerment they have, and whether the average cost for others is 0.3. So together with retail investors, FOMO, this is the end result.

RNDR

Let’s take a look at $RNDR. Apple has officially announced a cooperation. The token will modify the economic model and allow token payment. Moreover, the platform has a lot of offline cooperation, which is good.

As a result, the team's 0 cost coins were smashed again and again, and the leeks were cut without any concealment. How can this be justified? The most difficult thing to distinguish in the currency circle now is the sickle. Among the projects I have experienced and the people I have come into contact with, it was only in the past week or two that I discovered how hard they cut, but no one knew.

So these days, I don't really feel much about the decline of BLUR, but I feel a chill about Sickle. I still have a few hundred ETH that I can still copy, I still have funds on the sidelines, and I have done enough research on the fundamentals of the project. Unlike $LDO $OP $MAGIC $RNDR, other people's coins have zero cost or low cost, and the amount can be smashed. In the short term, $BLUR is only a piece of cake due to the early airdrops and market makers. Just let them have a good time. Many people have been curious about my positions. I actually hate being copied, so I almost only make them public for a short time in the community. In the future, I will not talk about my buying and selling operations on Twitter, but will be more logical. There are currently more than 1 million BLUR tokens. At the same time, my account number on the chain is: 15.87. It can be easily found by experts who receive CLONEX (just check it yourself, don’t send it out, there is no need), and the loss of several hundred E... …Everyone’s investment logic is different.

The reason why I was able to make tens of millions with 20% of my principal in a bear market was mainly due to my own investment logic: I would take heavy positions when I saw it right, and I would do it almost as soon as possible - I never expected to buy at a low point or sell at a low point. At the high point.

Profit and loss come from the same source: This is the reason why I can make a lot of money, and it is also the reason why everyone feels that it is too early to enter BLUR this time. (The other 80% of the principal position has been mentioned on Twitter and the community for a long time, and it will not be available until June.) In terms of my style, I go for it if I am optimistic about it, so I suffered a big loss on X2Y2. But also because of this, you can make a lot of money on other promising NFTs such as AZUKI and Goblin. Goblin can get hundreds of ETH for a project, and the principal is dozens of E - but at 0.3, not many people dared to sell dozens of E.

Therefore, many retail investors who don’t want to think will spread the news in the community: Whatever you invest in Daewoo, you will lose. But he doesn’t want to compare how much he earns.

The altcoin surge that began in January this year

$BONK $SOL $GALA $LDO $SSV is doubling or multiplying several times everywhere, and many of them are achieved within a week or two or even a day or two.

Therefore, my style is indeed very fierce in making money based on grasping the fundamentals and market sentiment. So I still hope that loyal fans will think more about what I recommend. In fact, there are not many people who dare to speak openly about making money and losing money.

BLUR’s reflections and market dynamics

Next, let’s talk about BLUR: Now the whole Internet is scolding $BLUR – just like they were scolding leaders like OP ldo and GMX before. Some people even pretend that they have seen today, so don’t be fooled.

The truth about the market is that its madness and stupidity are difficult to predict. It is easy to pretend to be wise, but even harder to exit the market.

For example: are you familiar with the average cost of $BLUR, future selling pressure, cost of hair removal, whether the leading advantage can be maintained, etc.? It is not easy to become familiar with these contents. Yesterday, mint ventures wrote a BLUR talk, which was very in-depth and professional. However, there were still some minor errors and omissions regarding the team unlocking time, which is even more difficult for retail investors. In addition, it is even more difficult to evaluate and compare in combination with LDO OP GMX, etc. And the hardest part is seeing people! If the team wants to cut leeks, I will lose everything this time.

Why is it the hardest thing to see people?

In fact, OPENSEA and $snx are both very typical "teams working on things". The projects are very good, but when they make money, they fall flat. It was difficult for you to predict this before. Of course, there is something worse. The purpose of the project on the first day was to cut people off - I won’t name them here. The key is that retail investors have no chance to know. It was only after I came into contact with VCs that I learned more of the cruel truth.

Does BLUR want to use this platform to cut leeks?

I think we can infer the worst malice. Assume that he also wants to cut off, that is, regardless of users and the long term, he just wants to realize it sooner, faster, and more. What is he going to do? First of all, PARADIGM has invested tens of millions, and BLUR has a large team and high consumption. At present, the coins of both parties will be unlocked after June 14th, with about 1.6 million being unlocked every day.

If they ship?

At the current currency price, it is about 1 million US dollars a day. If the currency price stabilizes, they can make back their capital by selling for 35 days in a row, and double the profit after selling for 2 months. But fortunately, it can be inferred that a giant like Paradigm will not find it interesting to earn 1 times 35 million US dollars-especially considering that the sign will be smashed. Therefore, the team and VC will not rush to sell. If you sell, the currency price will collapse faster, the market makers will run faster, and the project will die before they can recover their capital. If it's not easy to cut this way, try another method.

Publish fearful news, smash the market to buy the bottom, and then post positive news. In other words, you can speculate on your own coins. This possibility still exists. Tomorrow, amber, who is invested by paradise, will withdraw a lot of BLUR from OK, but the amount does not seem to reach tens of millions, which is not very interesting. Generally speaking, compared to an anonymous small team, you don’t have to worry too much about being harvested in a hurry. As for combing hair, it will only be released in October.

So, it’s very simple: now everyone scolds, everyone smashes, smash to 0.1? Down 90%? There are only so many coins, so it may be difficult to do it - the market value will be several times smaller than LOOKS by then... But, even if it happens, so what? Although the ETH I scored lost nearly 200E, I can still copy it. In addition, I no longer score points. Considering the long time and cost, it is better to speculate in coins. So, it’s not that I don’t understand selling pressure.

Rather, I have carefully calculated the selling pressure in various worst-case scenarios.

The project team has not released any interesting news for a long time, but after understanding the above content, you will find one thing:

Now, in addition to making good products, the project team must also maintain the currency price - if the currency price really drops to 0.1 or lower, no one will provide liquidity, and the project will remain GG. The way to maintain currency prices is not to pull the price, but to find ways to make the tokens useful.

This is what the project side has to do. The only problem is:

When to do it? How to do it?

For the project side, as long as the current currency price can be maintained, it stands to reason that there will be no rush to create new benefits, and the big move should be used sparingly - and for me, why won't I change to GMX now? Because GMX It has risen a lot now, while BLUR has been falling. BLUR just needs to wait for any token scenario, while GMX's advantage is not that big.

Good projects will not die if they are scolded, but bad projects will not survive.

The most important thing is to establish your own investment logic instead of following anyone else's operations. If you really want to follow orders, it is better to follow Buffett than follow me.