"The non-farm preliminary battle has a surprise attack, 100,000 jobs are fierce as a tiger, ETH is going to take a hit tonight!"
My viewpoint:
The just-released ADP employment data for July in the U.S. (commonly known as 'little non-farm') blew expectations away — 104,000 jobs, smashing the forecast of 75,000, and it even rubbed last month's negative 30,000 into the ground! How fierce is this data? The stronger the economy, the more the Federal Reserve dares to raise interest rates!
The logic chain that is bearish for ETH:
Strong employment = Inflation hard to kill → Federal Reserve more confident in delaying rate cuts or even raising rates again
Rising interest rate expectations = Dollar becomes sought after → Dollar surges (the dollar index is already climbing now)
Strong dollar + High interest rates = Draining liquidity from the market → High-risk assets like ETH are the first to take a hit!
(Refer to last September's non-farm data exceeding expectations, where ETH plummeted 8% in one day)
My judgment:
In the short term, ETH will definitely be under pressure! Don’t be fooled by ETH's on-chain ecology, but when the macro boss speaks, even the son has to kneel. The collapse of gold, silver, and oil after the data release is a signal; the crypto market cannot stand alone. But how deep it falls depends on the U.S. stock market's reaction tonight — if the Nasdaq also tumbles, ETH could drop by 3%-5% in a single day!
Ending hook:
"Monkey King predicts: ETH is going to dip tonight! But do you want to buy the dip? Will $3500 be the solid bottom? Or will the Federal Reserve's scythe be more ruthless? Share your actions in the comments, and I'll pick 3 people to give away trend analysis secrets!"