Written by: Joe Zhou, Foresight News
Today marks Ethereum's tenth anniversary.
In the past decade, Ethereum has become the asset with the highest investment return globally, possibly without exception.
In the past decade, Nvidia's market cap grew 150 times, Bitcoin's market cap grew 300 times, while Ethereum's market cap grew 3,600 times, reaching $450 billion. In just ten years, Ethereum has become one of the top 30 assets in the world by market cap.
In the past decade, Ethereum has become one of the world's safest financial systems.
In the past decade, there have been trillions of dollars flowing on Ethereum, with stablecoins alone reaching an annual trading volume of $20 trillion. In addition to stablecoins, Ethereum also has decentralized exchanges (with daily trading volumes reaching up to $10 billion), staking systems (involving hundreds of billions), lending protocols (tens of billions), derivatives (daily trading volumes in the tens of billions), NFTs, etc. The Ethereum mainnet itself has not experienced a single shutdown, outage, or hack.
Looking back over the past decade, at least three epoch-making products have emerged from the Ethereum ecosystem, just as Apple launched the Mac, iPhone, AirPods, and iPad; Ethereum is also the absolute leader in its market.
Stablecoins have an annual trading volume of $28 trillion, of which over 70% occurs on Ethereum; in 2016, the world's first DAO was born on Ethereum, and now over 90% of the largest DAOs globally by TVL are in the Ethereum ecosystem; during the summer of DeFi in 2020, Ethereum was the only center, with a market share of 95%-99%; in 2021, when NFTs first broke out on a large scale, Ethereum was the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume... Meanwhile, tokenization of US stocks, tokenization of US bonds, RWA, and AI Agent memes have only just begun.
So what about a decade later? Ethereum will be among the top 30 assets globally, surpassing renowned companies like Meta, TSMC, Visa, and Mastercard. Is this its endpoint?
No, this may just be the true starting point.
Just like when Apple's MAC computer surpassed 10 million users in 1987, that was not the endpoint, but the starting point of everything.
Now, Ethereum, which has approximately 10 million users monthly, has officially begun its next decade.
Ethereum has 100 times the growth potential.
1. Even if Ethereum's TVL grows 100 times, it will only occupy 2% of the global financial asset size.
2. If Ethereum's user base grows 100 times, it would only reach 1 billion. Meanwhile, Visa and Mastercard have issued more than 3 billion cards each.
3. Like Apple's computers in 1987, Ethereum is still a gathering place for niche enthusiasts. In 1987, Mac series computer sales surpassed 10 million units; as a global shared computer, in 2025, only about 10 million people (170 million addresses weekly) will be using Ethereum monthly.
4. Ethereum, a financial system tempered over ten years, has seen trillions of dollars flow through it. Among them, the annual trading volume of stablecoins on Ethereum has reached $20 trillion.
5. The miracle of stablecoins is expected to be replicated across various 'product lines' on Ethereum.
In 2016, stablecoin market value was $1 million, reaching $1 billion in 2018, and $100 billion in 2021. A 1000-fold increase in two years and a 100-fold increase in four years; the miracle of stablecoins (USD tokenization) could also happen with US bond tokenization and US stock tokenization.
6. Ethereum is providing alternatives to all mainstream financial products. What financial companies can do, it can do; what financial companies cannot do, it can still do.
7. Ethereum is tokenizing almost all mainstream financial products.
Ethereum is working on dollar tokenization (USD stablecoins), a $40 trillion market, currently reaching a scale of $300 billion; Ethereum is working on US bond tokenization, a $36 trillion market, currently reaching $7 billion; Ethereum is working on US stock tokenization, a $60 trillion market, which is just getting started and currently reached $500 million... These could suddenly explode in just a few years, growing a hundredfold in a year, just like the explosion of the US stablecoin market.
8. As a new global financial system, Ethereum still has at least 100 times the potential for growth in the financial market. Ethereum's TVL is only $80 billion, while the total asset size of the global financial system is up to $400 trillion. Even if Ethereum grows 100 times, it will only account for 2% of the global financial asset size.
9. Ethereum is not a 'substitute' for the global financial system; it is redefining what finance is, just like the relationship between email and postal services. Postal services used to be the primary means of communication, but now the daily email volume exceeds the annual volume of postal mail.
10. Twenty years ago, no one believed that more than 90% of human information would occur on the internet; now, few believe that 9% of future human funds will circulate on Ethereum.
Ethereum awaits every collapse of the financial system.
1. Every crisis in the global financial system is an opportunity for Ethereum.
2. Ethereum is waiting for every collapse of the mainstream financial system. These collapses, big and small, almost happen every month, every year, and every cycle.
3. Economic crises, pandemics, wars, political turmoil, national bankruptcies, currency devaluations, geopolitical conflicts... In the 195 countries globally, each country's major upheaval is a collapse of a certain part or link in the global financial system.
4. In the past 100 years, there have been at least 10 major financial crises globally; 8 large-scale deadly pandemics with global impact; over 30 national bankruptcy events, with currency collapses and hyperinflation bankruptcies reaching at least 10 times. In the past 50 years, there have been about 15 to 20 major wars with international impact. All these changes will alter the landscape of the financial system, bringing new market demands for Ethereum.
5. Ethereum is the center of 'marginal finance.' Approximately 10 countries have been excluded from the mainstream financial system, while up to 30-50 countries are marginalized. Their ordinary citizens need stable currencies, merchants need cross-border trade, and the middle class needs to buy quality stocks.
The mainstream financial system prohibits them; Ethereum accepts them.
6. Duan Yongping repeatedly emphasizes: do the right thing, and do things right. Ethereum continues to do what centralized institutions like governments, financial institutions, and internet companies cannot do. Doing decentralized things is the right thing to do.
7. Ethereum is delivering a dimensional strike against Swift. Ethereum has become the largest value network globally outside Swift. Ethereum clearly surpasses Swift in several important dimensions, including but not limited to: network neutrality, 24/7 availability, transaction fees, cross-border transaction speed, transparency, and the degree of automation in asset settlement. As important countries like the US begin to embrace Ethereum in compliance and regulation, in 30 years, Ethereum may have the opportunity to replace Swift as the largest value network in the world.
8. Nearly 20 countries are under Swift sanctions and restrictions. Ethereum does not require permission; any country or individual can trade here.
9. Athens and Sparta, Android and Apple, Ethereum and the global financial system... they are two sides of the same coin; missing either is a deficiency.
10. The success of Ethereum is highly probable. The mainstream financial system will not collapse suddenly, but will continue to experience ongoing collapses. Each collapse is beneficial for the new financial system, for Ethereum, and may present an excellent opportunity for Ethereum's rapid expansion.
Ethereum's moat
1. Ethereum's moat. First: sufficiently neutral. Only it and Bitcoin are sufficiently decentralized in the blockchain, not controlled by any single country or organization; second: sufficiently secure. The mainnet has operated for ten years with a market cap of $450 billion, without any large-scale downtime, outages, or hacks; third: a unique culture. DAO governance, early user airdrop mechanisms, transparent trading, and a strong emphasis on ZK technology and privacy protection... the Ethereum ecosystem has formed a good culture, and good culture breeds good business models.
2. On July 30, 2015, Ethereum's mainnet officially launched. Over ten years, Ethereum's mainnet has not experienced a single shutdown, outage, or hack.
3. Ethereum is a public good. Air can be polluted, water can be prohibited, land can be expropriated, highways can be denied access, and internet accounts can be banned... Apart from the sun, moon, and a few other existences that humans cannot interfere with, there have been no truly equal public goods available for all until the emergence of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
4. Ethereum does not require permission to use. Bitcoin is a currency common to all humanity, while Ethereum is a supercomputer shared by all humanity. Anyone can deploy, run, verify, and use programs on the Ethereum network without relying on traditional servers or companies.
5. Ethereum is a decentralized financial system, a public good, digital oil, a supercomputer shared by all humanity, an immutable global ledger, the largest value network outside of Swift, a decentralized internet, and a network nation.
6. Ethereum is the absolute leader in the crypto world. In 2024, the annual trading volume of stablecoins will reach $28 trillion, with 70% of transactions occurring in the Ethereum ecosystem; in 2021, NFTs broke out, and Ethereum was the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume; in 2020, during the summer of DeFi, Ethereum was the only center, with a market share of 95%-99%, and almost all decentralized financial activities such as lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols operate on it.
7. Ethereum is the biggest challenger to the global financial system. It offers a financial system that allows fair and secure trading without regulation. When a country is kicked out of the mainstream financial system, Ethereum is one of the best solutions. When a business or merchant wants to conduct normal cross-border transactions but cannot for various reasons, Ethereum provides a new financial system. When an individual cannot easily trade in foreign stock markets or real estate, Ethereum provides a regulatory-free financial system.
8. Ethereum is the source of innovation in the crypto industry and the center for almost all large-scale blockchain applications. During the summer of DeFi in 2020, Ethereum was the only center, with a market share of 95%-99%, where almost all lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols operated; in 2021, when NFTs broke out, Ethereum was the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume; in 2025, when stablecoins break out, the global annual trading volume of stablecoins will reach $28 trillion, with over 70% of the trading volume occurring on Ethereum.
9. Competition ultimately comes down to time and who makes the fewest mistakes. And Ethereum is always the one that makes the fewest mistakes.
Ethereum's mainnet has operated for ten years without any large-scale halts or outages. Solana launched its mainnet in 2020 and has experienced over 10 major outages in five years, averaging 1-3 per year, with multiple network restarts; Sui launched its mainnet in 2023 and has had two outages in two years.
10. In the AI industry, there can't be Nvidia; in the smartphone industry, there can't be Apple; in the crypto industry, there can't be Ethereum.
Surpassing BTC is not impossible.
1. Bitcoin is just a currency system; Ethereum is not only a currency system but also a financial system, an internet system, and a supercomputer shared by all humanity.
2. Those who believe that Ethereum's value surpasses Bitcoin have never disappeared. Entrepreneurs like Mark Cuban (2021), Real Vision CEO Raoul (2023), and 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino (May 2025) have publicly and clearly expressed such views at different times and places.
3. Cathie Wood is considered one of the most optimistic celebrities regarding Ethereum's future prospects. She believes that by 2032, Ethereum's price could reach $166,000, with a market cap of $20 trillion. Currently, Ethereum has a market cap of $440 billion, indicating that Cathie Wood believes Ethereum has nearly 50 times the room for growth.
4. Ethereum, like Bitcoin, is scarce. Currently, Ethereum's inflation rate is lower than that of major currencies like BTC, gold, the US dollar, and the euro.
In 2024, Ethereum's inflation rate is projected to be -0.2% to 0.5%, compared to BTC's 1.7% (which will drop to 0.85% after the 2028 halving, decreasing every four years), gold at 1.5% (with supply increasing by about 1.5%-2% annually), euros at 2.5%, and dollars at 3.3%.
Meanwhile, some currencies have astronomically high inflation rates: 28% for the Egyptian pound, 31% for the Iranian rial, 58% for the Turkish lira, 250% for Argentina, and 560% for Zimbabwe.
5. At the arrival of Bitcoin's first decade, it reached $3,500. Ethereum's first decade reached $3,800.
In Bitcoin's first decade, its market cap reached $62 billion; in Ethereum's first decade, its market cap reached $460 billion.
6. Ethereum once 'nearly flipped' Bitcoin's market cap. In mid-2017, Ethereum's market cap even reached 80% of Bitcoin's; in mid-May 2021, Ethereum's market cap reached 48% of Bitcoin's. Currently, Ethereum only occupies 20% of Bitcoin's market cap.
7. Without Bitcoin, the crypto industry has no reason to exist; without Ethereum, the crypto industry loses its reason to exist.
8. Between August 2015 and January 2016, Ethereum's price remained below $0.3. Now, Ethereum is valued at $3,900, an increase of over 13,000 times. During this period, BTC's increase was several hundred times.
9. Ethereum has unlocked two price growth engines: one is the US Ethereum spot ETF, and the other is the Ethereum strategic reserve institution. It is expected to launch in October this year. Ethereum will also open a third growth engine — the staking feature for the Ethereum spot ETF. Once open, ETH holders who participate in staking will earn an additional annual yield of about 3%.
10. In the next decade, when Ethereum becomes as popular as the internet, the number of Ethereum users will grow 100 times, and the funds on Ethereum (TVL) will also grow 100 times.