Daily sharing
The upward trend of Bitcoin has finally emerged. Since mid-June, we have firmly believed that the daily rise is not over and will reach 120,000~130,000, and we also firmly believe that Ethereum will break through 3000 to reach 3400. Although there have been some fluctuations in price, the upward trend has ultimately formed. Many people lose their direction amidst Bitcoin's repeated fluctuations and ultimately fall before dawn.
The rise of Bitcoin here is not over; it will continue to extend upward in the short term, so we should remain bullish for now. Don't miss out on the subsequent rise for a small short position. For now, we will continue to wait for Bitcoin to reach the target area before observing when this wave of daily level rise will end.
For the current altcoins, the good news is that there should be another week to two weeks of upward trend. The bad news is that I personally believe that the current altcoins are still not heading towards a huge bull market of 10x or 20x; the current altcoins are merely rebounding from an oversold condition, not an absolute reversal. Strong altcoin varieties may not make new lows during Bitcoin's next daily level pullback, while weaker coins may continue to drop to new lows. Therefore, about two weeks later, we need to remain extremely vigilant.
BTC medium to long term
Weekly:
Weekly level, currently undergoing the third weekly level rise, the target for this weekly rise continues to be seen in the range of 150,000~200,000. However, I do not believe that Bitcoin will reach above 150,000 in July and August; this weekly target corresponds to the end of January 2026.
After the completion of the weekly rise, whether Bitcoin will fall into a technical bear market in 2026 remains to be seen. What we need to do is to seize the opportunity to ride the huge upward wave to 150,000~200,000. Therefore, the second half of the year remains a good opportunity to make money in this circle.
Daily:
At the daily level, we have been looking from 49000; the position of 49000 is the starting point of the new weekly level rise.
Overall, the daily level has completed three parts:
49000~109588 is the first daily level rise;
109588~74508 is the second daily level pullback;
74508~120000+ is the third daily level rise; we are currently in the process of the third daily level rise.
We have defined a range above, which is 120,000~130,000. Personally, I tend to think that after Bitcoin rises to this range, the third daily level rise will end. Of course, it is also possible to break below 130,000 before ending; after all, it is very difficult to accurately predict the final high point in advance. For now, I am targeting around 125,000.
It is expected that from mid-August to the end of September, there may be a fourth daily level pullback, with the third daily pullback focusing on around 90000 or 88000. Then, by the end of the year to January next year, we will see the fifth daily level rise, targeting the range of 150,000~200,000.
4H:
At the 4-hour level, the main body has currently completed three parts.
74508~111980 is the first 4-hour level rise;
111980~98200 is the second 4-hour level pullback. Of course, we can also divide this pullback into a 4-hour level central zone, although there is a single segment rebound in between.
98200~currently, running the third 4-hour level rise, with the target looking around 125,000.
Currently, this 4-hour level rise is not over; it is expected that there may be a trend of two central rises.
BTC short term
Due to the fast changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes; this is merely for reference.
1H:
1-hour level, currently running a 1-hour level rise after leaving the central zone, this 1-hour rise started at 107429, and the expectation is not over yet. We may have to wait until just above 120,000 for the next 1-hour level pullback. It is expected that Bitcoin may oscillate around 120,000 for a few days to build the second 1-hour level central zone, and then proceed with the rise of the second central zone.
Whether it will eventually exceed my expectation of 125,000 and go to a higher position, we will see as we go along.
Here I must criticize some people; clearly, the current rise is not over, there is still room above, yet they do not look bullish actively, but instead keep asking me when the next daily level decline will start and what the position will drop to. I don’t understand this mindset. Since the rise has not finished, shouldn’t we go with the trend? We can consider the next daily decline only after we have signs of a peak.
15M:
15-minute level, currently has completed 5 parts of the 15-minute level structure. The fifth part of the 15-minute level rise is not diverging, so there will be a sixth part of the 15-minute level pullback and a seventh part of the 15-minute level rise.
Currently, we are looking at whether the sixth part of the 15-minute level pullback will emerge. If it does, pay attention to around 116000, and there will be a seventh part of the 15-minute level rise, looking at whether the seventh part can reach just above 120000.
ETH
In the daily level of Ethereum, from December last year to April this year, Ethereum experienced a strong trend decline at the daily level, dropping from 4107 to 1385. This decline led the entire altcoin market into a technical bear market trend. Will Ethereum break below 1385 again in the second half of this year? Will Ethereum break through 4100 again in this bull market?
I personally believe that after Ethereum breaks 3000, the next daily level pullback may not fall below 1385. However, if the market behaves as we expect with a daily level pullback in August and September, it is very likely that Ethereum will retest below 2000; this probability still exists.
If by the end of the year, the third daily level rise of Ethereum shows a strong upward trend and the exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin shows a bull market trend, then there is a chance for Ethereum to break through 4100 and reach 5600. If this trend occurs, the altcoin season will very likely see a resurgence.
Therefore, I remain optimistic about the big market for altcoins by the end of the year. Of course, when I say the end of the year, I am not referring to November to December, but rather the period from December to the end of February next year.
At the 4-hour level, Ethereum is currently undergoing the third 4-hour level rise, and my expected target is 3438. Whether this will end the daily level rebound will need to be observed later.
At the 1-hour level, the current rise of this 1-hour central zone leaving segment should not be over yet; attention can be paid to the range of 3100~3150. It is expected that in the coming days, Ethereum may oscillate around 3000 up and down by one or two hundred dollars to construct the second 1-hour level central zone, and then proceed with the rise of the leaving segment.
15-minute level, we will see if there is a 15-minute level pullback tonight, and then there will be another 15-minute level rise to test 3100.
Trend direction
Weekly level: direction is upward, currently undergoing a new weekly level rise, with an overall target looking above 150,000.
Daily level: direction is upward, currently undergoing a daily level rebound, the target for this daily rise is around 120,000~130,000.
4-hour level: direction is upward, the rise at the 4-hour level is ongoing, pay attention to 125,000.
1-hour level: direction is upward, pay attention to around 120,000.
15-minute level: direction is upward, after a short-term 15-minute level pullback, there will be another 15-minute level rise.