The biggest event in the crypto community this week was the acquisition of HT by Sun Ge. Subsequently, HT doubled due to Sun’s continuous calls for orders. Today I also shared my thoughts on this incident on my Twitter (@Amy6Tina). In order to expand the discussion on this incident, let’s briefly discuss examples from the past year. They are: Musk for pie and dog; AC for FTM; CZ for LUNC; Erbao for W chain; SUN for HT.
1-When Musk ordered a big pie, he directly pushed the pie to above 3WU and directly upgraded Niu Chu to Niu Zhong; later he modified his Twitter signature to declare that dogs are more environmentally friendly, and directly launched a round of marketing based on dogs and SHIB ( It directly turned him into a project in the top 20 in market value) and marked the MEME wave. In fact, Erbao's analysis was quite accurate when he analyzed why Musk changed from calling for pie to calling for dog.
As the founder of YFI, 2-AC later moved into the Fantom ecosystem and launched a project similar to the ve(3,3) model, which directly brought nearly half of Fantom’s TVL growth.
3-CZ seems to have not seen the recent enthusiastic promotion of lunc except for bnb, even terra and stepn are just investments; lunc directly promotes the reform of fee burning; directly promotes the token price to increase more than 5 times. The largest liquidity of its tokens is actually in An.
4-Erbao is the trader of W this time. Although the mainstream big Vs are not optimistic about this target, Erbao has achieved his goal and bought the spot of sesame cakes, making a steady profit of about 30-50%; getting W AirDrop, you can make a sure profit (throw it when it’s over 20 dollars); short W, you can make a sure profit.
The influence of 5-sun in the cutting circle can be seen from its 30 million followers on Twitter, which has caused ham, MDX, etc. to skyrocket, and ham has doubled. The investment principal of 1 billion may be recovered by directly shipping the token.
I believe that after thinking about the above examples, I also summarized 4 points on Twitter to improve my judgment in the future:
1-Look at the facts, not the underlying price
We are all accustomed to using short-term prices to judge whether the investment logic is correct, which is obviously unreliable. All opinions need to be based on factual analysis, and facts must be proven or falsified. Where can we get information close to the facts? It is necessary to find reliable information sources based on daily investment targets, such as: official Twitter, official DC announcements (may be hacked); announcements of listed companies (A shares, Hong Kong and US stocks), financial reports, long-term tracking of trustworthy influencers, and market trends. Old Leek’s views through in-depth exchanges.
2-Multiple sources cross-validation
Investment is a battle between left and right. If any trustworthy information source is not optimistic about the bidder, the reserve is to go against the local dog, otherwise it will never take a heavy position. A good investment decision is actually a conclusion after repeated thinking. Before investing, you feel compelled to invest, and after investing, you can feel comfortable holding it even if there is a certain retracement.
For some particularly important investment decisions, we need to repeatedly demonstrate from the bottom up and then from the top down, consider everything, and ensure that there are no problems with all the logic before it is worthy of our heavy investment.
3-Look at the argument, not the conclusion
When I first started investing in private equity in 2018, I always hoped that investment consultants or big guys would give me a wealth code (that is, a conclusion). But the reality is that in investing, reliable conclusions are rare. This is especially obvious when reading A-share research reports. Anyway, the conclusions are recommendations. The most important thing is to look at the data and information in the key arguments and the logic of reasoning. Otherwise, 90% of the research reports on the market actually don’t make much sense.
4-Clear the interest chain
The top five examples of big guys calling for orders are actually the best explanation of the interest chain. Taleb once mentioned in "Antifragility" that you should not listen to the advice of people who make a living by giving advice unless there are corresponding penalties for their advice. When we see any investment information, it is best to think about the interest chain behind it, which will be very helpful for our investment judgment.
Conclusion:
The recent projects that I have participated in DID and SBT are actually based on keeping a proper distance from the industry. Many projects including bnb domain name and XEN did not participate because I knew it was late. Think about it: information gap often determines profits, cognition can protect profits, and efficient tools (or scientist-like participation) can increase profits. In addition, the current market is still in a bear market. How to make good use of the crisis is the top priority. Avoid ignorance of the crisis; be alert and avoid it; and find opportunities that suit you.
