Last Monday, there were two possible judgments for BTC's trend: one was horizontal consolidation followed by a drop, and the other was a pull-up to blast a wave of shorts before dropping. The subsequent trend confirmed the first scenario, with horizontal consolidation followed by a drop.
The drop location also lined up perfectly, stopping just at the support near the 100,000 mark.
However, there was soon a rapid rebound, and it has now returned to the previous consolidation range.
My intuition tells me it’s very bad, with contradictions in the real trading opportunities.
The crypto market is completely different from before, with a significant change in participants, and the movements are more sinister. If BTC has a manipulative force, then the new manipulators are beasts. The spot market doesn't want to give retail investors a chance; the game is at a higher dimension and more brutal.
The two leading trends are contradictory, BTC and ETH, one wants to rise while the other wants to fall. The one that wants to rise can't move, and the one that wants to fall isn't falling deeply.
BTC has been retracing for more than two weeks, but the price has been reluctant to drop. This morning, the weekly line closed with a doji.
Last week, many altcoins reached critical buying points. For example, the recent low for SOL shown below was one of the buying zones.
The current position and approach are unfriendly to retail investors in the spot market.
The BTC market manipulation is quite bad. As long as there are many retail investors daring to chase positions in the market, experience tells me that it will definitely push down another level (buying BTC is fine, but if you sneak in early to buy altcoins, the loss will be even greater after the drop). If retail investors don't follow, then it uses time to exchange for space. When the time comes, unknowingly, it has already ground to a high position, and those who realize it later will find that there are no cheap chips left to buy.
(To make money in the spot market, you can't follow the crowd. As long as the actions of most retail investors show consistency, it is very likely that they will get hurt.)
The current approach is one of the classic manipulative methods in the stock market.
There is a trend but no good position. If buying in the 100,000 support zone, be prepared for the first batch of positions to be trapped. In stock market trading, there is a professional term—"being trapped" (be prepared for a drop after buying).
Why do trading experts also get trapped? They know there might be a drop but still buy in?
Because the market trend is fundamentally unpredictable, when being trapped, the probability of rising is often greater. If you don't buy at this time, there is a risk of missing out later.
Decades of experience from countless masters in the stock market tell us that in this situation, the best coping strategy is to control with position management and a phased strategy.
Two weeks ago, I reminded everyone that the short opportunity had arrived. Now it's time to abandon the short mindset!
Overall, the BTC trend remains strong, and it is highly likely to maintain the earlier judgment of high-level consolidation without significant retracement.
Currently, the outlook for this week's trend has two major possibilities: one is horizontal consolidation, turning upwards later in the week. The other is to dip again before turning into an upward consolidation. The probability of breaking the 100,000 support this week is very low.
For those looking favorably on medium to long-term but currently have no positions, you can enter near the 100,000 mark, manage your positions well, and prepare funds for potential averaging down.
If there is a sudden bearish drop, pay attention to the support near 9.7, which happens to be the critical position for the non-Fibonacci 0.382 retracement. Normally, this position is likely to be reached, but the current market has been reluctant to drop. If it falls to this support, partners who are optimistic about the future should not hesitate to enter with at least part of their positions. Currently, the probability of retracing to the 0.5 support is quite low.
What I share revolves around practical trading and making money, all strategies for real trading and responses, unrelated to analytical thinking.
ETH's trend remains very strong. Last week I mentioned that I would choose to short ETH, but I haven't seen the opportunity all week. The drop in BTC didn't crash it either. The profitable way to short ETH is to wait for opportunities on the right side of the range. If it breaks down without effect, don't short.
As for other altcoins, just wait for the opportunity to buy in the spot market.
Last week, under the influence of the dramatic Trump and Musk feud, Dogecoin led the mainstream in short-term bearish declines. Partners holding positions asked about the situation with Dogecoin.
Regarding Dogecoin, here’s a unified answer: recent stablecoin regulations have had a significant impact on Dogecoin. They are all payment applications, and the purely decentralized concept of Dogecoin will take time for the global public to accept. In the short term, centralized stablecoins are winning due to better practicality, popularity, and implementation.
Buying Dogecoin has always been said to be unless you are doing long-term holding, for medium to short-term you must combine technical analysis and market trends, otherwise holding on will be very torturous.
Financial markets often have value that may not necessarily have a price in the short term! Especially in the crypto market, short-term trends are mainly driven by hype narratives.
Recent observations have found that the activity levels of self-media and retail investor groups are decreasing, and fewer people are paying attention to the spot market.
Lastly, there's good news. Experience tells me that the opportunity for altcoins is not far off. It may not be altcoin season yet, but some altcoins will start an upward trend. They are waiting for signals from BTC.
As for which altcoins have opportunities, this tests the comprehensive abilities and real skills of the participants.
Macroeconomic data will have CPI data released on the 11th this week. The general view is that the May CPI report in the U.S. will begin to reflect the impact of tariff policies, and the May CPI year-on-year is expected to rise.
The CPI report for May will be one of the last important data points before the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting. Traders have begun to bet that the Fed will cut rates twice by 25 basis points in the second half of the year.
The exchange has a saying: the fear is that you won't play.
It’s hard to understand, but now it has become concrete, directly switching to a murder mode with trades.
As long as you browse self-media or engage in trading, no matter how much capital you have, gradually it will all be drained.
Moreover, some even wipe out loans entirely.
"Digital slaves" are vividly reflected in the crypto circle.
They control the source of information to stimulate and tempt you, overturning your common sense, ultimately leaving you unable to distinguish between true and false, slowly leading you to ruin.
This thing is like "traditional Chinese medicine treating cancer", it can fool quite a few people.
The usual trick is simply this: out of 100 patients, 2 succeed, and these two might be early-stage cases. They were cured through chemotherapy, but they just took two packets of herbal medicine from you.
Then, I started making banners and posting on social media: Late-stage cancer can still be treated, traditional Chinese medicine is awesome!
This kind of case using extreme examples to deceive is prevalent in various industries...
Blindly acting alone will never bring opportunities. Why not follow the experts? I will take you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier resources!