Madman said…

Whether the Bitcoin spot ETF can pass is a matter of two or three days. Judging from the data from all parties and the tone of well-known media, the ETF’s passage is basically a certainty. Among them, Bloomberg analysts believe that the probability of SEC passing this time As high as 95%, the SEC requires a number of listed Bitcoin spot ETF companies to submit the final version of 19b-4 on Friday. This document is mainly used for voting. Once the vote is passed, the Bitcoin spot ETF will be officially approved. At present, the negative premium of Grayscale's GBTC exchange for Bitcoin is completely non-existent, indicating that the market has fully anticipated the passage before the 10th. At the same time, the CEO of BlackRock also believes that their ETF will be approved before the 10th. These remarks and market pricing are by no means groundless. The strong trend of Bitcoin also just illustrates the great probability of approval.

Now that the ETF has been approved, you need to consider the trend after approval. BlackRock stated that it will convert 2 billion worth of Bitcoins into Bitcoin ETFs. This is obviously not incremental funds, but genuine Bitcoins in hand. In other words, the funds of most institutions have been allocated to Bitcoin through various methods. The adoption of Bitcoin spot ETF will not bring huge real increases in the short term, but will instead bring about the realization of emotional value. In any case, in the long run, the threshold for institutions to enter Bitcoin has been significantly lowered, and incremental funds will follow over time. This is an indisputable fact. For the long term, we should continue to be optimistic. For the short term, a wave of FOMO is likely to occur after the good news materializes, that is, a rapid upward rise. However, with insufficient relays and limited funds on the market, upward pins are very likely to appear at the weekly or monthly levels. Possibly, so it may be a better strategy to start gradually reducing short-term positions when there is a high (such as above 50,000), and then take it back around 40,000.

There is also a very small chance of an event happening, that is, the SEC once again delays the approval of ETFs. This situation is a major negative and will cause a greater panic in the market. However, because the expectation of future approval still exists, panic selling occurs. On the contrary, the market is a good opportunity to get on board, and the range of 36000-40000 is a good position to receive the market. Of course, this is extremely unlikely to happen.

After talking about Bitcoin, let’s talk about Ethereum. Recently, both the ETF and the Inscription market seem to be surrounding Bitcoin. Ethereum is like a forgotten public chain. In terms of cost and processing speed, it is not as good as emerging public chains such as SOL and AVAX. , even Bitcoin is difficult to outperform in terms of growth. Many people have doubts about its value. In fact, madmen think it is unnecessary. The intrinsic value of Ethereum is still abundant, and its ecological diversity and scale are not those of emerging public chains. It can be surpassed in the short term, and it is only a matter of time before the value returns or makes up for the increase. What's more, its continued deflation and sustained risk-free interest rate are the underlying logic for investors to hold it for a long time.

For small coins, judging from the trend in recent days, it is obvious that there has been a large-scale ebb, especially the inscription market that exploded in the previous period. The inscription itself has no value, and speculation is nothing more than a gimmick. These things can only be speculated, and most inscriptions will eventually return to zero due to exhaustion of liquidity, which is similar to the ending of the popular NFT in previous years. If you have to choose the general among the dwarfs, you can participate in those inscriptions with excellent liquidity and strong consensus at bargain prices. The premise is also speculation, because the value is not sustainable.

While other small coins are declining, some tokens surrounding the Bitcoin ecosystem have continued to be strong, such as Bitcoin L2’s $STX, Bitcoin L2 side chain $RIF, Bitcoin anchored assets $T, and BRC20 inscriptions. $ORDI, etc., shows that funds are still participating in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Another direction is the strong effect of the public chain led by Mingwen. Thinking back to the ICO in 2017, the biggest beneficiary was ETH. The scene of exchanging real gold BTC and ETH for garbage coins is vivid in my mind. Now Mingwen has changed the soup but not the medicine. , using the tokens of each public chain to exchange for garbage inscriptions will obviously benefit the public chains that issue inscriptions, provided that the inscriptions can continue to generate money-making effects. If you still want to lay out inscriptions, maybe you can pay more attention to BNB. After all, the Binance WEB3 wallet will come out sooner or later, and the ecological probability of empowering yourself on BNB is still high.

Finally, I want to talk about the 10x and 100x coins that people are looking forward to. It is very difficult to find a 10x coin from a big exchange like Binance, because the minimum market value of the tokens listed on Binance must be more than 100 million US dollars. Most of them It will be 500 million to 1000 million after listing, and if it doubles 10 times, it will be 5000 million to 10000 million. Tokens with a market value of more than 5 billion will basically enter the top 20. It is not easy to enter the top 20, so for small funds who want to get rich, you just have to You can look for opportunities on the chain. Some protocols have been implemented and there are scenarios. However, the market value is only a few million US dollars. If this kind of token develops in the future, maybe ten times or even a hundred times is really not a dream.

There is a long way to go, and an empty cup state is the long-term solution for this industry. Forget about past successes and adapt to the current new currency circle, maybe you will have a chance to get rich again. This sentence is not only for myself, but also for you super old leeks. mutual encouragement!

Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.

〈[Madman Talks about Trends] Reduce positions on highs, and then take them back around 40,000〉 This article was first published on "Block Guest".