Author: hitesh.eth

Translated by: Tim, PANews

In early 2017, when I was understanding the true potential of Bitcoin, that shock was like discovering a new spark in the digital age. This is not a new alternative asset, but a completely new paradigm, a technology that redefines money.

Chandler Guo Explains How Bitcoin Can Reach beyond $10,000 or Even $1 M https://t.co/BqSw4GkQHt pic.twitter.com/xy1Z1bHLr2

— hitesh.eth (@hmalviya9) November 15, 2016

A decentralized system that is not subject to arbitrary intervention by governments and central banks, providing financial autonomy for anyone who chooses to participate. It is not just an investment action; it is a financial revolution. I hope everyone around me can understand what I see.

I prepared a long message and sent it via WhatsApp to 100 people, suggesting everyone buy Bitcoin while also recommending a consulting service that could help them increase their Bitcoin holdings. Although I had achieved some initial success in competing coin investments at that time, thinking it would not be difficult to double everyone's Bitcoin assets within a few months. But at that time, my understanding of the market was still in its infancy, and I did not fully comprehend how narrative logic and emotional changes drive price trends in this young market.

Based on the limited available data at that time, I gradually formed my understanding of the market. Most competing coins launched between 2015 and 2017 lacked a trading history cycle to reference. Their price charts showed a seemingly eternal upward trend, with slight pullbacks appearing like the 'pause button' before a new round of increases.

This model is intoxicating: buy, hold, wait, and then watch your holding value continuously rise. The 'design' concept of the cryptocurrency market seems to suggest only increase, and this idea quietly took root in my mind. The market volatility at that time did not scare me; I thought it was just a part of what needed to be experienced.

In theory, I once firmly believed I could face those market pullbacks with a calm mind, but the first major adjustment in the second quarter of 2017 thoroughly shattered this illusion. This was not just a simple pullback; it was a crash. Tokens that performed well in the first quarter hit new lows, with declines reaching 70% to 80%, and our beliefs collapsed in an instant.

As I watched the value of my holdings shrink, excitement turned into panic, and optimism became doubt. But I still persisted, firmly believing this was just the agony before the next rise. However, later I did not double my Bitcoin position; instead, I reduced my holdings by 70% to 80%, returning to the original starting point.

Market uncertainty follows one after another. Bitcoin soared from $10,000 to $20,000, while competing coins struggled to recover. Market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is chaotic; today it is touted as the future of currency, and tomorrow it will be flooded with 'death' reports in the media: China's bans, regulatory crackdowns, hacking attacks. Every piece of negative news will stir up tumult in the market. My initial firm belief began to waver. Are we really on the edge of a financial revolution? Or is this just another speculative bubble destined to burst?

Until January 2018, when the time came in January 2018, this month thoroughly refreshed my understanding of the market. Competing coins not only rebounded but also experienced explosive growth. TRX surged a hundredfold in just a few weeks, and countless projects that had been criticized made a strong return, with some skyrocketing tenfold and others much more. The market fell into a frenzy, and everyone felt like an investment genius.

The anxiety of the past few months dissipated with the emergence of a green bullish candle. Just like that, a new understanding formed in my mind: perhaps this is the rule of market operation. After experiencing a catastrophic pullback, its return will be even more intense.

This belief was veiled with a layer of deception in front of us. We tried to convince ourselves with a 'new normal': we all convinced ourselves that this is the new normal, believing that every crash is just a prelude to the next surge. We waited for the 'green months' to return, firmly believing that patience would eventually pay off. But so far, all of this has yet to arrive. The market continues to bleed, and what was once an exciting capital game gradually evolved into a slow and painful reality: we were trapped by our own high expectations. This cycle has played with us.

Every cycle has its moments of extreme euphoria; in the previous cycle, we saw the same situation occur in the NFT space. Certain NFT series skyrocketed a hundredfold in a short period, and such 'crazy 30 days' occurred three times in a row. It felt just like 2018. Hype, the belief that 'this is just the beginning', FOMO, everything was remarkably similar. When the market continued to rise after two pullbacks, we thought: 'Maybe this is how the market works' and chose to HODL. However, the outcome played out once again: we lost everything. My losses in NFTs were severe, just as usual.

People often say, 'Experience is the best teacher,' but the market always finds a way to make you forget. Your mind will deceive you, making you believe that this time it really is different. 'I now know how this game works and won't make the same mistakes again.' But the unseen traps are always present. That illusion of feeling in control and having cracked the wealth code keeps you in the market for too long. In the end, the market is the winner. Over time, you may learn to reduce losses, but the result is still a loss.

Recently, we witnessed history repeating itself once again. This time it is the AI Agent track. Shortly after its public release, it skyrocketed a hundredfold, and ICOs seemed to suddenly make a comeback. It felt as if yesterday was repeating itself, just with a different outer layer. We believed again that this crazy cycle could last for weeks or even months.

We keep making mistakes and stumbling, knowing what we're doing, but unable to stop it all from happening; in fact, we cannot control our emotions.

Maybe right now, you emotionally believe that everything is over, and only a few coins will rebound. But the market always acts contrary to expectations, and this time it will repeat its old tricks. You may be forced to sit at the table or exit, and to me, this is the outcome that most retail investors are destined to face.

The only way to win in this capital game is to maximize gains when at the table and minimize losses when exiting. Of course, it's easier said than done.

(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with the authorization of partner PANews, original link)

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author's personal opinions and does not reflect the views and positions of Block客. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades; the author and Block客 will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investors' trades.

"The 'Cycle Curse' of the cryptocurrency market: knowing the bubble will burst, why do we keep losing everything over and over again?" This article was first published on (Block客).