The American central bank is expected to maintain the rate, while the Brazilian one will raise interest rates; the market's doubt is what both will indicate about the future in their communications.

Super Week begins this Wednesday (19) with interest rate decisions in Brazil and the United States, and extends until Friday (21) with meetings of central banks from the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Japan, China, Taiwan, Chile, and Paraguay.

In common, the members of the monetary policy committees of the nine countries will weigh the uncertainties that currently mark the global scenario, especially the elephant in the room: the back and forth of American President Donald Trump regarding tariffs and their impact on inflation.

In the US, the expectation is that the Federal Reserve will leave the American basic interest rate unchanged in the range between 4.25% and 4.50% per year. Experts' assessment is that it is unlikely that the FOMC, the Fed's committee, will mention tariffs (or Trump) in its communication, but everyone will be watching the macroeconomic projections for inflation, economic growth, and interest rates, which are released every two meetings by the FOMC.

In the latest announcement, the Fed signaled two interest rate cuts this year, and the question is whether this scenario will remain. “I believe that the set of these revisions should bring slightly higher inflation in 2025,” points out Tomás Urani, an economist at Santander. “I think they will continue to indicate two cuts for this year, but perhaps with some uncertainty around that, as a signal of fewer cuts for the following years or a slightly higher long-term rate.”

For Urani, the Fed will not directly mention tariffs, as the scenario is one of uncertainty. “Much of what has been said in terms of tariffs has not yet been implemented, it is more about uncertainty,” says the international economics specialist.

In the assessment of Fabio Kanczuk, former director of Monetary Policy at the Central Bank and current director of macroeconomics at ASA, regardless of the Fed's communication, the trend is that the US central bank will not carry out the two interest rate cuts that had been signaled for 2025. “Trump will indeed impose tariffs, and reciprocal tariffs will also come. It is an inflationary scenario, and it complicates the chance of interest rate cuts in the United States.”

Communication for upcoming meetings is uncertain in the Copom.

In the case of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank) meeting, the expectation is for a 1 percentage point increase in the basic rate, to 14.25% per year. This will be the last increase that had already been contracted by the Central Bank last year, before Gabriel Galípolo assumed the presidency of the Central Bank.

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