Many gambling members of the cryptocurrency community predict a rise in the bitcoin price in March and are betting on an increase on the Polymarket platform.
At the end of February, the bitcoin price began to correct after a dump, during which the coin decreased in value by 19% in less than a week. By March 2, BTC had risen by 22% and nearly fully regained lost positions, however, a bearish trend emerged again, and the value of the digital asset dropped by 14%. The correction, which began after reaching a local low at the mark of $81,495, ended on March 6 due to a statement by US President Donald Trump about the creation of a strategic reserve of bitcoins, which does not foresee the purchase of coins.
On the chart showing the change in the bitcoin price, there is a descending trend line that started in January 2025. Currently, it is passing around $94,800 and is gradually declining. Thus, the probability that the BTC price will reach $95,000 by the end of March is quite low.
Descending trend on the chart of the bitcoin price change
Most clients of Polymarket expect the BTC price to rise to $95,000 in March, and the chance of this outcome is estimated at 42%. If the value of the cryptocurrency reaches this mark, the pair will win and yield a 133% profit.
In addition to this, the most likely event is considered to be a drop in the bitcoin price to $80,000. Currently, the coin is priced at $85,888, meaning it only needs to decrease by 6.9% for the bet on this outcome to happen. In case of success, the pair will allow for a capital increase of 67%. In more serious fluctuations in the bitcoin market, predicting a price rise of the coin to $100,000 or a drop to $75,000, few believe this, therefore the chance of these events is 22% and 29% respectively.
The probability of the bitcoin price reaching various benchmarks
